EU Rapemeal Prices

04/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, following strong gains in soymeal values in Chicago last night, although there's been a bit of a correction there in the overnight trade.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Oct13
220.00
+3.00
Nov13/Jan14
223.00
+3.00
Feb/Apr14
223.00
+3.00
May/Jul14
217.00
+2.00
Aug/Oct14
208.00
+3.00
Nov/Jan14
212.00
+2.00

Chicago Closing Comments Thursday Night

03/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended their mini rally from 19 month lows set earlier in the week, without the aid of the usual weekly export sales data from the shutdown USDA. The trade is trying to decide if Tuesday was the oft seen "October low" or if there is more downside on further harvest pressure to come yet this month. Rain is seen slowing the US harvest this weekend, although anecdotal reports still suggest significantly better yields from many had anticipated. At this stage it looks unlikely that we will get a harvest progress/crop condition report from the USDA on Monday night and next Friday's WASDE report would also appear to be in jeopardy. Strong Asian buying of meal in recent days is supporting that market. Europe are also said to have been buying US meal. Ideas are that a punitive import tax on EU biodiesel imports from Argentina will lead to a reduced crush (and therefore lower supplies of meal) by the world's largest soymeal exporter. The beans will still be there though, and they will be crushed somewhere, quite possibly here in Europe where there will also be increased supplies of rapemeal as a spin off of increased rapeseed usage to fuel biodiesel production here. The Philippines bought 40 TMT of US soymeal for Jan shipment and are said to be looking for more. Stats Canada are tomorrow expected to report a record large canola crop there this year. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.88 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.89, up 13 1/4 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD427.80, up USD10.20; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.01, up 89 points.

Corn: The corn market was once again little changed in a narrow trading range. As with beans, rain is seen disrupting harvest activity this weekend, but yields "better than expected" keep getting reported back from what has been picked so far. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's 2013/14 corn planted area at 3.46 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 3.56 million due to dryness. Taiwan's MFIG bought 60 TMT of Brazilian corn for Nov/Dec shipment. Whilst the USDA remain shutdown, Informa Economics are due out tomorrow with their latest US crop production estimates. For corn last time they had production at 13.889 billion bushels versus the USDA's September estimate of 13.843 billion. They had US corn yields estimated at 157.6 bus/acre versus the USDA's September estimate of 155.3 bu/acre. Progress is slow with the Ukraine and Russian corn harvests, with the first snows of the winter being reported in Ukraine yesterday. The trade is trying to get to grips with whether corn is under-priced or wheat is over-valued. Current differentials are the widest in three years. The large fund short in corn also appears to be underpinning the market and should encourage buying on any price breaks. Seasonally though, the low in the corn market often doesn't come in until a bit later in the year, often in December. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.39 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.52, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed with modest gains on all three exchanges. There was no weekly export sales data from the USDA to underscore that demand for US wheat remains strong. The market did however get news that Brussels had issued 746 TMT of EU soft wheat export licences this past week, the largest weekly total of the season so far, reaffirming the notion that global demand for wheat is currently buoyant. It also suggests that not everybody wants the cheaper Black Sea options. Adding support was the news that the FAO cut their world wheat production forecast by 5 MMT to 705 MMT. That really is an "is the glass half full or half empty" sort of a thing as 705 MMT is still a record crop and their previous estimate of 710 MMT was the highest one out there. What the market chose to focus on though was the news that they now peg Argentina's wheat crop at only 9.5 MMT versus the USDA's September estimate of 12.0 MMT, although they aren't the only ones thinking that frost and dryness may have cut this year's production to below 10 MMT. That's potentially good news for US wheat exports to Brazil. On the flip side they left Canadian wheat production unchanged from their previous forecast of 29.2 MMT. Stats Canada may blow that one out of the water tomorrow when they release their October crop production estimates. The average trade guess for wheat is 32.9 MMT, which would more than compensate for Argentina's losses this year. Planting delays in Russia and Ukraine are adding support to a market still vulnerable to the size of the existing fund short position in Chicago wheat. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.89 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.55 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.50 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.

EU Grains Rise On Black Sea Rains/Snow

03/10/13 -- EU grains closed higher with Nov 13 London wheat settling GBP3.05/tonne firmer at EUR159.65/tonne and Jan 14 up GBP2.90/tonne at GBP161.65/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat was up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR195.00/tonne whilst Nov 13 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.50/tonne to EUR368.75/tonne.

The pound was a bit weaker today, aiding London wheat to jump to a near one month high. Paris wheat meanwhile rose to a 2 1/2 month high on strong demand and continued planting problems in Russia and Ukraine. Chicago wheat hitting a 14 week high lent good support.

Winter plantings for the 2014 harvest in Russia are now 50% complete at 8.2 million hectares. That's way below the 12.7 million ha sown this time a year ago and the 11.5 million planted in 2011.

Plantings in Ukraine are also well behind normal, and it's reported to have started snowing there today.

The Russian grain harvest is now 77.9% complete at 78.6 MMT, up less than 4 percentage points in a week as heavy rains continue to disrupt combine activity. The wheat harvest is 80.6% done at 48.7 MMT, the barley crop is 83.1% in at 14.9 MMT and the fledgling corn harvest only 15.4% complete at 1.9 MMT.

This is the news that is sending global wheat prices higher at the moment, spurring funds to cover their extensive short position in Chicago wheat and propelling US prices to a very hefty premium over corn. Is this sustainable? Who can tell.

Reports continue to suggest that early US corn yields are better than expected, and significantly so, and that maybe they will end up with a record crop in excess of 14 billion bushels this year versus only 10.78 billion in 2012.

Whilst US and EU wheat exports have been very good up to now in 2013/14, data from the leading French export hub of Rouen today showed grain exports down 46% versus last week at 142,486 MT. That included soft wheat heading for Mauritania (35 TMT), Algeria (31 TMT) and the UK (6.2 TMT). They also exported 40 TMT of feed barley to Saudi Arabia and 17.9 TMT of malting barley to Peru this week. It remains to be seen if this is just a blip or the start of a trend.

The market is expecting crop data from Stats Canada tomorrow to show record wheat and canola production there this year. The all wheat crop could come in at anywhere up to 34 MMT versus 27.2 MMT last year and the previous record set in 1990 of 32.1 MMT. They are also expecting a canola crop in the region of 16-18 MMT versus 13.87 MMT in 2012.

The FAO estimated the 2013/14 global cereal crop at a record 2.489 billion MT, down 3 MMT from their previous estimate, but up 8% from 2012/13. They have the wheat crop at 704.6 MMT (still a record) versus a previous estimate of 709.8 MMT due to poor South American crops and excessive moisture in Black Sea.

The partial US government shutdown means that we are deprived today of the usual Thursday USDA weekly export sales data. Strong demand for US wheat from Brazil and possibly China too, is what the market thinks is going on under the table. Nobody seems sure when these reports will resume being updated.

EU Rapemeal Prices

03/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer on the back of yesterday's news that Europe is considering slapping an anti-dumping tariff on biodiesel imports from the dirty cheating Argies and Indonesian rainforest clearing conglomerates.

That will potentially support the bleatings on the European biodiesel industry (which can't make a profit otherwise), and create more demand for EU biodiesel not the dirty stinking stuff that the Argies keep sending us. Hence demand for home produced rapeseed and oil here will rise. Therefore we will produce more meal. Therefore the price of it will go up. It's all to do with the inverse crush basis fibonacci head and shoulders dead cat bounce. It's not a con. Repeat slowly after me...

This...is...not...a...con...it's...market...forces...and...the...dead...cat...thingy. There you go, we'll make a trader out of you yet sunshine! Bless, now off you go for that right-handed glass hammer.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Oct13
217.00
+4.00
Nov13/Jan14
220.00
+5.00
Feb/Apr14
220.00
+5.00
May/Jul14
215.00
+5.00
Aug/Oct14
205.00
+7.00
Nov/Jan14
210.00
+6.00

The Rapeseed/Meal/Oil Conundrum

03/10/13 -- News yesterday that the EU is proposing to raise anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia (where 90% of EU imports come from) was cited as being responsible for Paris rapeseed rising more than EUR10/tonne at one point before settling EUR7.50/tonne firmer on the most active front month Nov 13.

The proposal will now go before the EU Anti-dumping Committee on October 22-24, and if passed should certainly be good news for rapeseed demand. It should also be bullish for rapeseed oil prices, which have been on their arse lately due to over-supply and lack of demand. Note soyoil in Chicago closed at a more than 3-year low last night.

What this shouldn't be bullish for though is rapemeal prices, which is why the hike in values of meal at home and on the continent yesterday is somewhat confusing. Effectively banning biodiesel imports from these countries. Bullish for domestic seed demand. Prices go up. Tick. Need more oil. Tick. Bearish for palm oil and soyoil. Tick. Prices of those will go down. Tick. Produce more rapemeal here. Meal prices go up. Eh? What's that all about? So, if anyone wants to avail themselves of some rapemeal at today's Fancy Dan prices then give me a call. Hurry, buy now before prices go down! Erm, I mean whilst stocks last, obviously.

What a conundrum. I feel a bit like conundrum specialist and 2011 rear of the year Carole Vorderman, except she hasn't got a beard, obviously. My arse has won prizes too you know. Seriously. Oh, yes. Well a (singular) prize. I once came second in a sexy bum competition in some club in St Helens.  In around 1982 it was. Of course it was fixed. I would have, or indeed should have won it, but I refused to offer "extras" to the pig in a wig that was doing the judging. Another one of life's little disappointments.

Chicago Flat To Higher, Corn/Wheat Differential Widens

02/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed modestly higher, with meal more impressively so and soyoil slumping to a fresh 3-year low. Midwest rains are seen disrupting the harvest this week, just as it was threatening to go full throttle. Linn Group forecast US 2013 soybean yields at 42.0 bu/acre, with production at 3.184 billion bushels. Lanworth are a bit less optimistic, forecasting a crop of 3.112 billion bushels, unchanged from their previous estimate. FCStone yesterday said 41.4 bu/acre and 3.163 billion bushels versus the USDA's estimates of 41.2 bu/acre and 3.149 billion. The ballpark seems to be getting a little smaller, at least as far as the final production number goes. Harvested acres are still a bit of a wild card though. Nobody currently seems to know when we will get any more data from the USDA due to the US budget problems. Tomorrow would normally bring the weekly export sales numbers, Monday the crop progress/crop conditions figures and next Friday the October WASDE report. For now, like the USDA website, we remain in the dark. Stats Canada are open for business though, and they are expected to estimate a record 2013 canola crop on Friday. The average trade estimate for that is 16.6 MMT, versus their previous forecast of 14.7 MMT and last year's crop of 13.9 MMT. Some private estimates are at 17 MMT or even higher. Rabobank forecast CBOT soybean prices at USD12.25 in Q4 of this year versus a previous estimate of USD13.00 a month ago. Then then see prices at USD12.50 in Q1 of 2014, followed by USD12.05 in Q2 and USD12.00 in Q3 as potentially record South American production comes on tap. They forecast US 2013 yields at 41.5 bu/acre, incidentally. South Korean buyers are said to have bought more than 200 TMT of soymeal over the past 2 days of a mixture of US, South American and Indian origin. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.73 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.75 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD417.60, up USD9.10; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 39.12, down 89 points. The alarming slump in soyoil values, which have been in decline all year, is seen shifting the crush margin burden to meal - supporting the latter relative to the former.

Corn: The corn market settled unchanged - matching yesterday's more than 3-year closing low. Trade was in a very narrow range. Linn Group estimated US 2013 corn yields at 159.4 bu/acre, with production coming in at 13.979 billion bushels. As with beans, Lanworth are less bullish on production at 13.483 billion. FCStone yesterday gave us yields at 157.8 bu/acre and production at 14.15 billion. The USDA are currently at 155.3 bu/acre and 13.843 billion bushels. Whilst production there ranges from 13.5 to in excess of 14.0 billion bushels, all those numbers are record production and represent an increase of at least 25% on last year, and in the case of FCStone more than 31% up on 2012's crop. Stats Canada are expected to report a Canadian corn crop of around 13.2 MMT on Friday, a modest increase on 13.06 MMT last year. Whilst the USDA stay out of the picture, Informa Economics are said to be due to release their latest production estimates on Friday. Lanworth also estimated the 2013/14 global corn crop at 949.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Rabobank estimated Q4 CBOT corn prices at USD4.35 versus a previous estimate of USD4.75, with prices rising modestly in 2014 to USD4.45 in Q1, USD 4.50 in Q2 and USD4.60 in Q3. The Energy Dept did report on US ethanol production, pegging that at 875,000 barrels/day, up sharply on last week’s figure of 832,000 bpd. South Korea's NOFI bought 52 TMT of Black Sea origin corn for March shipment. South Korea's FLC bought 63 TMT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Korea is also buying US DDGS instead of corn. Israel bought 40 TMT of optional origin corn, possibly from Ukraine for Dec/Jan shipment. Harvesting in Ukraine and Russia is only making slow progress. The Ukraine corn harvest is said to be 18% done at 4.69 MMT. A "back of the fag packet" calculation there suggests a final crop of 26 MMT not the 29 MMT that many like the USDA have been forecasting. Russia's crop is 14.4% harvested at 1.7 MMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.39, unchanged; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.51 3/4, also unchanged.

Wheat: Wheat was higher on all three exchanges. Chicago wheat has now only closed lower in three sessions out of the past eighteen. Serious delays in planting winter grains, mostly wheat, in Russia and Ukraine for the 2014 harvest have caught the market's attention. When the funds have been holding a near record short position in wheat it doesn't take too much to spark a bit of panic. Various government and private estimates are indicating that perhaps 20-30% of the planned Ukraine winter grains area won't get planted, along with maybe a slightly smaller 15-20% of Russia's winter grains. Most of that will be winter wheat. Some spring wheat will likely get sown instead on this area of course, but there will also be the possibility of a significant switch into sunflower, soybeans even, as well as corn and barley. Russia has sown 7.9 million hectares of winter grains so far, less than half of the planned 16.4 million and 35% fewer than were sown this time a year ago, and 31% less than at this time in 2011. Rusagrotans said that reduced 2013 winter plantings could cut Russia's 2014 grain output by 2.5-5.0 MMT. Strong global demand for wheat, from the US and EU as well as the Black Sea is also underpinning the market. The fact that corn is now trading in the USD4-4.50 range though would suggest that wheat could have a hard time of it getting above USD7.00 and staying there. Stats Canada are expected to report a monster 32.9 MMT all wheat crop on Friday, although some estimates suggest that output could be even higher (Rabobank are at nearly 35 MMT). Last year's production was only 27.2 MMT. They've also now begun the 2013/14 wheat harvest in Western Australia. Late rains have proven a life-saver for this crop and there's talk of "the best crop in years" in some areas of the state. Bangladesh picked up a best offer of USD289.86 C&F in it's wheat tender. The origin is believed to have been Ukraine. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.86, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.54 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.47 3/4, up 11 cents.

EU Grains Rise On Bargain Hunting

02/10/13 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, recovering some of yesterday's losses, as the market sees bargain-picking with US corn levels at 3-year lows and soybean values posting 19-month lows yesterday.

The market closed with Nov 13 London wheat settling GBP1.70/tonne firmer at EUR156.60/tonne and Jan 14 up GBP1.75/tonne at GBP158.75/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat rose EUR2.50/tonne to EUR192.50/tonne whilst Nov 13 Paris rapeseed was up EUR7.50/tonne higher at EUR368.25tonne.

Not everybody thinks that the lows are quite in just yet though. Rabobank predicted a CBOT Q4 of 2013 low of USD4.35, along with a Q4 soybean low of USD12.25. They see Paris wheat falling to EUR178 by the end of this year and EUR170 by next summer.

Russia's grain harvest is now 77.2% complete at 78.0 MMT, including almost 80% of the wheat crop at 48.4 MMT. The trade is trying to decide if the fact that official estimates of a grain harvest of 90 MMT and a wheat crop of 50 MMT are almost certainly too low, or the fact that plantings for the 2014 harvest are severely subdued is the most important factor.

Russian grains are only said to have been planted on 7.9 million hectares, 48.4% of the government's plan, and 35% down on year ago levels. Various private estimates now see Russian winter plantings 15-20% down on expectations, with those in Ukraine 20-30% lower.

Rusagrotrans said that the continued wet weather may trim 2014 Russian grain production by 2.5-5.0 MMT.

There's no problem with grain production this year in Canada though, They only problem they have is reaching for superlatives to describe this year's crop.

Stats Canada will report on production prospects on Friday. They are expected to peg the all wheat crop at 32.9 MMT versus 30.56 MMT previously and 27.21 MMT a year ago. They are also said likely to increase the size of the Canadian rapeseed crop to a record 16.6 MMT, from 14.73 MMT previously and 13.87 MMT last year.

Rabobank peg the Canadian wheat crop even higher at 33.98 MMT.

The wheat harvest is underway in Western Australia state, around 2 weeks earlier than normal. Some parts of the state, such as Albany, where the wheat crop is still at the grain filling stage, are said to be likely to see possibly exceptional yields this year.

The EU proposing higher import taxes on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel saw the rapeseed market sharply higher today.

Ukraine said that winter grain plantings are 37% complete at 3.055 million ha, including 42% of wheat (2.77 million ha). Winter OSR is now 90% planted at 831k ha.

EU Rapemeal Prices

02/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, a touch steadier nearby and a bit weaker further forward.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Oct13
213.00
+1.00
Nov13/Jan14
215.00
+1.00
Feb/Apr14
215.00
+1.00
May/Jul14
210.00
-2.00
Aug/Oct14
198.00
-2.00
Nov/Jan14
204.00
-2.00

Chicago Soybeans And Corn Extend The Rout, Wheat Swimming Against The Tide

01/10/13 -- General Comment: As if attempting to forecast which way grain prices might be going wasn't hard enough, we've now got the not insignificant outside market factor of the US budget impasse. Hitherto the market has been relatively relaxed about the fact that the US government has "maxed out" the credit card at it's USD16.7 trillion limit, it'll just go and another one or raise the ceiling surely? Eleventh hour deals have been done before, which is why it came as a surprise that we didn't get one on Monday night. If they don't get hold of some more rope to hang themselves with by the middle of the month what happens then? Global markets could go into a 2008 style tailspin, with everything from equities to commodities going down the pan, according to the BBC's News at Ten last night. Meanwhile both the USDA's global Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the domestic National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) websites are now down "due to the lapse in federal government funding." This is where reports such as the regular weekly export sales, crop progress and monthly world supply and demand estimates are released. Monday's stocks report sent soybean prices to a 19-month low, with corn slumping to its lowest in 3 years, who knows when the next set of data will come out, and what state the market will be in when it does.

Soycomplex: Beans extended yesterday's losses after the USDA's Monday night crop progress report revealed a 3 point rise in good/excellent crop ratings to 53%. Fund selling, brisk harvest activity and growing reports of better than expected yields added to the bearish tone. After the close FCStone raised their US 2013 soybean yield forecast to 41.4 bu/acre from 41.2 bu/acre, increasing production to 3.163 billion from 3.146 nillion and versus the USDA estimate of 3.149 billion. Dr Michael Cordonnier left his US 2013 bean yield estimate unchanged at 40.5 bu/acre, but said that there was now potential to raise this estimate. He left his Brazilian 2013/14 soybean crop estimate unchanged at a record 88.0 MMT. He also left his Argetine 2013/14 production estimate unaltered at a record 55 MMT. The Brazilian Trade Ministry forecast September soybean exports at 3.47 MMT versus 5.38 MMT in August, although up versus 1.68 MMT in September 2012. Private exporters reported the sale of 113,000 MT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. Fund selling was estimated at around 8,000 lots on the day in beans. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.68, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.70, down 15 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD408.50, down USD1.40; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.01, down 82 points.

Corn: The corn market closed slightly lower, in modest follow-through trade from yesterday's losses. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 4,000 contracts on the day, seemingly happy to further extending their record short position. FCStone raised their 2013 US corn yield estimate to 157.8 bu/acre from 156.3 bu/acre previously. They increase production to 14.15 billion bushels versus 13.942 billion previously and the USDA estimate of 13.843 billion. Dr Michael Cordonnier left his US 2013 corn yield estimate unchanged at 152.0 bu/acre, but said he may raise this in future reports. He also left his Brazilian 2013/14 corn crop estimate unchanged at 72.0 MMT, along with Argentina's at 25.0 MMT. The Argentine corn crop is said to be around 5% planted. The Brazilian Trade Ministry said that they exported 3.45 MMT of corn in September versus 3.05 MMT in August and 3.15 MMT in Sept 2012. The Russian corn harvest is only 14% done, delayed by rain. Harvesting in Ukraine is also well behind schedule (11% done) for the beginning of October. This could affect many European buyers with Ukraine corn bought for October and November arrival. Quality could also be a problem. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.39, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.51 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market managed to buck the trend and close higher on all three exchanges. The strong demand witnessed for US wheat on the international stage since the start of the 2013/14 season should continue to be boosted by a dollar under pressure from the US debt ceiling problems. The trade is also focusing on Monday's Sept 1 US wheat stocks number, which was below expectations at 1.855 billion bushels, suggesting that more wheat feeding went on in the Jun/Aug quarter than the market anticipated. It is also possible though that a slow start to the spring wheat harvest this year may mean that more wheat than anticipated was still out in the field. The Ukraine Ag Minister said that the nation's winter grains planted area may fall around 20% to 6.2-6.3 million hectares. Only around 2 million ha has been planted so far. Russia's winter grains planting is also delayed - said to be at the lowest level in 13 years. Russian exports are also slowing already, with SovEcon estimating September exports at 2.6-2.8 MMT versus 3.53 MMT in August. US winter wheat planting advanced from 23% done to 39% complete as of Sunday night, slightly behind the 5-year average of 40%. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.81 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.45, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.36 3/4, up 8 cents.

EU Grains Mostly Lower Following Bearish USDA Report

01/10/13 -- EU grains closed mostly lower in reaction to last night's generally bearish USDA stocks and wheat production data.

Nov 13 London wheat settled GBP1.85/tonne easier at GBP154.90/tonne, whilst Jan 14 was GBP1.80/tonne lower at GBP157.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat fell EUR3.00/tonne to close at EUR190.25/tonne. Nov 13 Paris rapeseed was also down EUR3.00/tonne at EUR360.75/tonne.

The USDA indicated much higher US corn and soybean stocks as at Sep 1 than the market expected, along with higher than anticipated US wheat production in 2013. That was enough to get the European market on the defensive after a week of steady gains.

Concerns over Russian and Ukraine late grain harvests and winter plantings for 2014 remain though. Russia has now harvested 76.6% of it's 2013 grain crop, producing 77.5 MMT to date. That includes 79.2% of this year's wheat crop (48.1 MMT) and 82.4% of the 2013 barley crop (14.8 MMT). The USDA agricultural attaché in Moscow cut his forecast for the 2013 grain harvest by 1 MMT to 90 MMT, due to a similar sized reduction for the barley crop which is now estimated at 16 MMT.

The attaché said that 2013/14 Russian grain exports will total 22 MMT, including 16 MMT of wheat, 3 MMT of barley and 2 MMT of corn.

The Russian Ministry said that winter grains have been planted on 7.8 million hectares, only 47.7% of plan, versus 12.2 million this time last year and 11.5 million in 2011.

The head of the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Centre said that 30% of the winter crop area may have difficulties making it through to spring due to adverse weather conditions.

Some forecasters suggest that drier weather lies ahead for Russia and Ukraine. Others disagree.

The Kazakh harvest is faring better than that in Russia and Ukraine, although at 84.6% complete it still lags last year's 97.5% significantly. They've now harvested 17.163 MMT of grains so far versus a Ministry forecast for a crop of 18 MMT in clean weight, up more than 40% on last year.

In contrast to the FSU, planting conditions at home are excellent. ADAS say that winter wheat is already 30-40% planted, with winter OSR all but finished up and winter barley around 20% done.

For winter wheat: "The earliest crops were drilled from about 10 September, and are just starting to emerge. Rainfall mid-month was welcome to improve the quality of the seed beds, but, with warm breezy days, soils rapidly dried out, making moisture conservation an important aspect of drilling preparations. Many farmers have used left over seed from 2012 following germination tests," they said.

The pound rose to its best levels against the US dollar of the year so far, following news that the Senate had voted down a House of Representatives-passed bill that called for a one-year delay in implementing President Barack Obama's flagship Affordable Care Act. Sterling also reached its best against the euro since mid-January. Both put London wheat under pressure.

Oil World estimated the EU-28 OSR crop at 20.9 MMT, up 6.6% on last year. They see imports falling from 3.4 MMT to 2.9 MMT, with the domestic crush also reduced from 22.6 MMT to 22.1 MMT.

EU Rapemeal Prices

01/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are 3-4 euros/tonne lower today following last night's bearish USDA report for soybeans.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Oct13
212.00
-3.00
Nov13/Jan14
214.00
-4.00
Feb/Apr14
214.00
-4.00
May/Jul14
212.00
-3.00
Aug/Oct14
200.00
-3.00
Nov/Jan14
206.00
-3.00

Chicago Soybeans Crash To 19-Month Low

30/09/13 -- Soycomplex: Having steadfastly stood by a 2012/13 US soybean carryout estimate of 125 million bushels for months, the USDA decided to go one better and increase that number today, coming out with a new figure of 141 million versus the 124 million average trade guess. They managed to do that courtesy of an increase in production last year, thanks to higher harvested acres and a 0.2 bu/acre hike in average yields. That takes the 2012 US soybean crop to 3.034 billion bushels versus the previous estimate of 3.015 billion. That was enough to panic the funds into dumping an estimated further 12,000 lots of their length in beans. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed them cutting their long position by more than 17,000 lots for the week through to last Tuesday night. Adding to the bearish tone were weekly export inspections of 14.288 million bushels falling short of the expected 15-20 million. The marketing year to date total is now 35.911 million bushels, less than half the 76.958 million accrued this time last year. After the close the USDA raised soybean good/excellent crop ratings 3 points to 53%, far higher than 35% a year ago, when the crop we are now told yielded 39.8 bu/acre. They have the US soybean harvest at 11% done versus 4% a week ago and what I believe is 20% normally. I say that as whilst the USDA website appears to be fine, the NASS website which carried copies of he weekly crop progress reports currently consists of a holding page saying "Due to the lapse in federal government funding, this website is not available. We sincerely regret this inconvenience." It appears that no eleventh hour face-saving budget deal has got done this time, which could weaken the dollar further, supporting the US grains sector. In other news, Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean crop at a record 86.0 MMT versus the current 2012/13 record crop of 81.6 MMT. They pegged Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean exports at 44.0 MMT versus their 2012/13 estimate of 41.5 MMT. The improved crop ratings and repeated reports of "better than expected" yields may be enough to encourage some follow-through selling in the morning. Note that the seasonal chart indicates the soybean market frequently, but not always, puts in a mid-harvest low in October - that low often comes in the first week of October. Tonight's Nov 13 Soybean close of USD12.82 3/4, down 37 cents, was the lowest for a front month since February 2012; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.85, down 36 1/2 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD409.90, down USD10.00; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.83, down 68 points.

Corn: The corn market also took a nose dive as the USDA raised 2012/13 US ending stocks at 824 million bushels versus the average trade guess of 681 million and 661 million in the September WASDE report. This was far higher than anticipated and above even the highest trade estimate. So, despite being reported as now holding a record short in CBOT corn in Friday's Commitment of Traders report, funds were given credit for selling a further net 9,000 corn contracts on the day. The magnitude of this short does leave the market highly vulnerable to a sharp upside correction at some point, although the seasonal chart indicates a bit more downside yet for corn. Weekly export inspections for corn came in at 21.192 million bushels, in line with expectations. That takes the 2013/14 marketing year to date total to 68.252 million bushels versus 82.653 million this time last year. After the close the UDSA left good/excellent crop ratings unchanged from last week at 55%. Maturity has improved to 63% compared to the 5 year average of 70%, even if it does lag 93% at this time last year. Harvesting is 12% done versus the 5 year average of 23% and a bit less than the 15% that the trade was expecting. This is a record crop that the US grower is trying to harvest so progress is slow. Note also that the 5 year average does of course include last year's exceptionally early harvest when half the crop was cut by now. US growers will be pleased, in more ways than one, that they aren't in the FSU. There are no cold weather threats in the forecast for the Midwest and good US harvest weather is generally in the forecast for the next 5-10 days. As with beans, early yields keep getting reported back as being better than anticipated. Russia and Ukraine on the other hand continue to make very slow progress with their corn harvests. Russia is 13.5% complete at 1.6 MMT, and Ukraine 11% done at 2.77 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that they'd exported 5.7 MMT of grains in 2013/14 so far, of which only 640 TMT is corn as they await the new harvest. Dec 13 set a new contract low, and closed at the lowest level for a front month in 3 years. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.41 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.54 1/2, down 12 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed across the three exchanges. The USDA pegged the US all wheat crop at 2.128 bullion bushels, up 20 million from last month and above the average trade guess of 2.114 billion. For Sep 1 US stocks they came out with 1.855 billion bushels, which was well below the average trade estimate of 1.913 billion, so the report contained both bullish and bearish elements. The lower stocks number appears to reflect increased wheat usage in feed earlier in the summer due to low domestic corn stocks, and also the strong early pace of US wheat exports. Friday's Commitment of Traders report shows funds reducing their net CBOT wheat short for the week through to Tuesday night, although their holding is still sizable. As with corn that leaves this market vulnerable to upside correction, but can wheat divorce itself from corn below USD4.50/bu? There are certainly legitimate concerns surrounding problems wrapping up the corn and oilseeds harvests in Russia and Ukraine. The same extremely wet weather conditions that are causing this problem have also brought winter grain plantings to a virtual standstill too. Russia has less than half it's planned winter crop area sown so far, and in Ukraine it's less than a quarter. The vast majority of what is waiting to go in is wheat. There's talk, but no official confirmation, that China has been buying Australian wheat for Jan/Mar shipment in the past few days. They are also said to be eyeing US spring wheat. South Korea millers bought 78,600 MT of US wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. They are also said to have bought 80 TMT of Australian wheat for Jan shipment. Australia will begin harvesting their crop very shortly. Brazilian millers are said to be continually shopping for wheat of both US, Canadian and European origin. Weekly US wheat export inspections came in at 32.973 million bushels, slightly below the expected 33-37 million. Even so, the marketing year to date total is now at 496.5 million bushels versus 355.8 million a year ago. The Canadian harvest is progressing well. In Alberta they are 71% done versus 62% this time last year and 48% for the 5 year average. Yields are said to be 20-25% up on last year. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.78 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents - its first lower close in more than a week; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.39 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.28 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.

EU Grains Mixed To Start The Week, FSU Wetness Concerns Remain

30/09/13 -- EU grains closed mixed with Nov 13 London wheat settling GBP0.50/tonne firmer at EUR156.75/tonne and Jan 14 GBP0.20/tonne lower at GBP158.80/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR193.25/tonne whilst Nov 13 Paris rapeseed fell EUR3.50/tonne to EUR363.75/tonne.

A USDA stocks/crop report came out too late in the day to influence the European markets too much.

Continued wetness in Russia/Ukraine was one of the other main talking points in the market today. As of Friday the Russian grain harvest is only 76% complete, producing a crop of 76.9 MMT to date. That includes 47.8 MMT of wheat off 78.4% of plan, 14.7 MMT of barley (off 81.7% of plan) and 1.6 MMT of corn (off 13.5% of plan). A week ago the grain harvest was at 70.1%, with wheat 71.2% cut, barley 77.6% done and corn 10.4% harvested, so it's clear to see that things haven't advanced much in the last 7 days.

The Ukraine harvest is 71% complete, producing 35.766 MMT to date. Corn harvesting is only 11% done at 2.77 MMT.

The severely delayed harvest and incessant rain is also badly affecting the planting of crops for 2014. Winter grains planting in Russia was only 46.7% complete as of Friday at 7.6 million hectares. A year ago Russian growers had planted 11.4 million ha of winter crops - 50% more than now.

In Ukraine winter grains are only 22% planted at 1.825 million hectares, including 25% of the planned winter wheat area.

The President of the Ukraine Agrarian Confederation (UAC) said that around 3 million hectares of the planned 8 million ha of winter grains may go unplanted this year due to the weather. That total would include 2 million ha of winter wheat.

Russian analysts ProZerno cut their forecast for the domestic grain crop to 90 MMT, comprising nearly 51 MMT of wheat, 15.5 MMT of barley and 9.8 MMT of corn due to excessive wetness. Grain exports in 2013/14 could total 23 MMT, including 16 MMT of wheat (versus 11 MMT in 2012/13), they said.

"Conditions have become excessively wet in European Russia the past 2-3 weeks, interfering with the planting of winter grains.  Areas of Ukraine and Russia have received 4-6 times the normal rainfall," said Martell Crop Projections. It's also cold. "Low-mid 50s F for maximum temperatures and mid-upper 30s F at night. That barely meets the threshold for wheat growth and development as 41 F (5 C) is required to stimulate growth as a mean daily temperature," they add.

In other news Ukraine said that they'd exported 5.7 MMT of grains so far this season (started July 1st), up 10.3% on a year ago, including 3.5 MMT of wheat. They will need to pick up the pace a little if they are to export the planned 26 MMT this season (versus 23 MMT a year ago).

The UAC President said that the current planting problems may lead to government to consider some form of export restrictions later in the current season.

Tunisia are tendering for 75 TMT of milling wheat and 50 TMT of barley of optional origin for Oct/Nov shipment in a tender.

Ensus are reported to be back up and running producing bioethanol at their Wilton facility, increasing the demand for wheat in the north east.

ADAS said that the UK 2013 harvest is almost finished, with only bits and pieces of wheat, barley and oats left to be cut, along with about 10% of the spring OSR crop.

"Harvest 2013 started late, with slow early progress, but good weather in late August coincided with peak crop maturity and led to a record weekly clearance rate, bringing the end of harvest in line with the 5 year average," they added.

Spanish wheat and corn imports fell in July due to bumper crop production there, according to the latest customs and excise numbers. The country imported 305 TMT of wheat in July versus 442 TMT in the corresponding month of last year, and also only 218 TMT of corn against 346 TMT in July 2012.

Game Changer?

30/09/13 -- As the Russian and Ukraine harvests remain at a virtual standstill due to heavy rains, winter planting is also stalled.

The Russian harvest was said to be 76% complete as of Friday, that's only up from 70.5% a week previously. The corn harvest has only moved on from 10.5% done to 13.5% complete during that time, with the sunflower harvest progressing from 11.1% to 13.9% complete.

Meanwhile the Ukraine grain harvest is only 71% complete, with just 11% of the expected record corn harvest in.

The President of the Ukraine Farmers Association, UAC, now says around 3 million ha of the planned 8 million ha of winter crops may go unsown this year - and 2 million of that will be winter wheat, he says.

Russian winter sowings are also in serious jeopardy, with less than half the planned area sown so far (7.6 million ha versus 11.4 million this time last year).

Of course they can sow in the spring, if there's enough spring seed available, although at the very least yields will be negatively impacted.