Chicago closing comments
Well the bears got the close they wanted with the soya complex pretty much locked in limit down.
Beans closed down their new daily 70c limit and were trading around a further 20c lower in synthetic trade. Oil closed it's extended limit, a monster 350 points lower (oil limits were extended by virtue of a 250 pt limit down close Friday) and were around a further 20 points lower in synthetic trade. Meal closed down the $20 limit on the first five positions and was trading a further dollar or two lower in kerb trade.
Wheat closed at or close to limit down in the first half dozen positions (-60c), although it seems fairly widely accepted that the USDA figures were not as bearish for wheat as they were for the soy complex.
Corn managed to buck the trend, as widely expected, although never quite managing to be strong enough to avoid spillover weakness from the other pits, closing with modest gains of around 4-8c having managed to get to within 4-5c of it's daily 30c limit. Early in the session the May price reached $5.88, the highest ever for a most- active contract.
By virtue of the soy complex settling at their respective lower daily trading limits, price limits tomorrow will expand for all three legs of the complex. Soybean daily limits will expand to $1.05 per bushel, Soymeal limits expand to $30.00 a short ton, and limits on soyoil expand to 550 points, or 55 cents, per pound.
Oil has now dropped 29%, or more than a staggering 2,100 points in just four weeks!
Cool, wet weather continues to hamper corn planting progress & there is now a real feel that despite coming out with a soybean planting estimate higher than anything being touted in the trade, the end figure could in fact be even higher.
The big questions now are can beans continue to fall whilst corn continues to rally? How much narrower can the bean/corn ratio get? And conversely of course, can corn manage to buck the trend in the face of rising production of beans & wheat given the question mark over continued strong demand from the ethanol sector? A sector that depends almost entirely on the US government maintaining the current level of tax breaks for the product AND the EU continuing to allow the US exploit it's "splash & dash" policy.
If corn is going higher then that certainly isn't going to help demand from the ethanol sector, especially given the current economic climate, against a backdrop of US plants being shelved on a weekly basis.
Beans closed down their new daily 70c limit and were trading around a further 20c lower in synthetic trade. Oil closed it's extended limit, a monster 350 points lower (oil limits were extended by virtue of a 250 pt limit down close Friday) and were around a further 20 points lower in synthetic trade. Meal closed down the $20 limit on the first five positions and was trading a further dollar or two lower in kerb trade.
Wheat closed at or close to limit down in the first half dozen positions (-60c), although it seems fairly widely accepted that the USDA figures were not as bearish for wheat as they were for the soy complex.
Corn managed to buck the trend, as widely expected, although never quite managing to be strong enough to avoid spillover weakness from the other pits, closing with modest gains of around 4-8c having managed to get to within 4-5c of it's daily 30c limit. Early in the session the May price reached $5.88, the highest ever for a most- active contract.
By virtue of the soy complex settling at their respective lower daily trading limits, price limits tomorrow will expand for all three legs of the complex. Soybean daily limits will expand to $1.05 per bushel, Soymeal limits expand to $30.00 a short ton, and limits on soyoil expand to 550 points, or 55 cents, per pound.
Oil has now dropped 29%, or more than a staggering 2,100 points in just four weeks!
Cool, wet weather continues to hamper corn planting progress & there is now a real feel that despite coming out with a soybean planting estimate higher than anything being touted in the trade, the end figure could in fact be even higher.
The big questions now are can beans continue to fall whilst corn continues to rally? How much narrower can the bean/corn ratio get? And conversely of course, can corn manage to buck the trend in the face of rising production of beans & wheat given the question mark over continued strong demand from the ethanol sector? A sector that depends almost entirely on the US government maintaining the current level of tax breaks for the product AND the EU continuing to allow the US exploit it's "splash & dash" policy.
If corn is going higher then that certainly isn't going to help demand from the ethanol sector, especially given the current economic climate, against a backdrop of US plants being shelved on a weekly basis.