Vessel Braz Pel Arg Pel ETL ETA Destination
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Hokuetsu Ace 11 37000+hp 25-Oct 11-Nov Amsterdam
Growth Ring 10000 39000 31-Oct 23-Nov Rotterdam
Lucky Sunday 20000+hp 29-Oct 21-Nov Amsterdam
Prince of Tokyo 36000 26-Oct 16-Nov Amsterdam
Glorious Sakura 10000 44000 29-Oct 18-Nov Rotterdam
Crimson Mercury 25000+hp 29-Oct 17-Nov Amsterdam
Sea Prince 42000 1-Nov 23-Nov Amsterdam
Double Prosperity 43000 2-Nov 24-Nov Rotterdam
Mary Georgia 43000+hp 6-Nov 24-Nov Rotterdam
Forestal Esperanza 20000+hp 9-Nov 24-Nov Amsterdam
Grain Harvester 34000+hp 13-Nov 30-Nov Amsterdam
United Challenger 40000+hp 13-Nov 26-Nov Amsterdam
Double Rejoice 43000 01-Nov 19-Nov Rotterdam
Cielo di Savona 22000 10-Nov 1-Dec Ghent
Dyna Voyager 40000 12-Nov 4-Dec Amsterdam
Wednesday, 11 November 2009
Rotterdam/Amsterdam Soymeal Shipping List
EU Rapemeal Prices
Basis FOB Hamburg/Lower Rhine in euros/tonne.
Nov 125,00 unch
Dec 125,50 -0,50
Jan 125,50 -0,50
Feb/Apr 125,50 -0,50
May/1st h Jly 118,00 -1,00
Aug/Oct 10 116,00 -1,00
Nov/Apr 11 126,00 -1,00
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed firmer, with beans and wheat around 6 cents higher and corn up 2-3 cents.
The dollar remains weak, against everything but the pound, and crude oil is a little firmer. The US Energy Dept are expected to say that crude stocks rose by around a million barrels last week shortly after the opening of CBOT this afternoon.
Yesterday's USDA report is already history. The US weather outlook seems reasonably favourable for attempting to get the remainder of the harvest in.
Already attention is starting to turn to South America.
In Argentina the western and northern growing areas are very dry, requiring at least 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rainfall to eradicate drought, says Martell Crop Projections. In La Pampa drought is more damaging for winter wheat than soybeans, whilst the best growing conditions exist in Eastern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe and extreme east Cordoba, where field moisture was near normal at the end of October, they add.
In Brazil Mato Grosso soybean development looks promising at this early stage of the new growing season, but Parana has become unfavourably dry. Rio Grande so Sul is expecting heavy beneficial rainfall today that would ease dryness, they conclude.
I'm starting to be inclined to say that production in South America may not be quite the bin-buster that some are forecasting. The desire to plant and harvest fast maturing early varieties in Brazil to take advantage of front-end premiums may knock a couple of bushels off yields there. There may also be a temptation to cut beans early to get a second corn crop in.
In Argentina, yields might be adversely affected by the poor seed quality after last year's disastrous crop, as well as dryness in the north and west.
Japan is shopping for 97,000 MT of mostly US wheat this week and Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT later in the month.
The Russian grain harvest now stands at 101.4 MMT in bunker weight, according to the Ag Ministry, of that 63.4 MMT is wheat and 18.7 MMT barley.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 3 higher; soybeans called 6 to 8 higher; wheat called 3 to 5 higher.
The dollar remains weak, against everything but the pound, and crude oil is a little firmer. The US Energy Dept are expected to say that crude stocks rose by around a million barrels last week shortly after the opening of CBOT this afternoon.
Yesterday's USDA report is already history. The US weather outlook seems reasonably favourable for attempting to get the remainder of the harvest in.
Already attention is starting to turn to South America.
In Argentina the western and northern growing areas are very dry, requiring at least 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rainfall to eradicate drought, says Martell Crop Projections. In La Pampa drought is more damaging for winter wheat than soybeans, whilst the best growing conditions exist in Eastern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe and extreme east Cordoba, where field moisture was near normal at the end of October, they add.
In Brazil Mato Grosso soybean development looks promising at this early stage of the new growing season, but Parana has become unfavourably dry. Rio Grande so Sul is expecting heavy beneficial rainfall today that would ease dryness, they conclude.
I'm starting to be inclined to say that production in South America may not be quite the bin-buster that some are forecasting. The desire to plant and harvest fast maturing early varieties in Brazil to take advantage of front-end premiums may knock a couple of bushels off yields there. There may also be a temptation to cut beans early to get a second corn crop in.
In Argentina, yields might be adversely affected by the poor seed quality after last year's disastrous crop, as well as dryness in the north and west.
Japan is shopping for 97,000 MT of mostly US wheat this week and Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT later in the month.
The Russian grain harvest now stands at 101.4 MMT in bunker weight, according to the Ag Ministry, of that 63.4 MMT is wheat and 18.7 MMT barley.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 3 higher; soybeans called 6 to 8 higher; wheat called 3 to 5 higher.
Brazil To Put Wheat Import Tariff On The Chopping Bloc
Nogger's favourite grains website Agrimoney.com is reporting that Brazil might be about to scrap it's duty on wheat imported from outside the Mercosul trade bloc.
Brazil's regular No 1 wheat supplier is Argentina, who in previous years have normally had enough to meet almost all of Brazil's import needs. Of course things haven't gone according to plan for the Argies in the last two years, with the 2008/09 crop wrecked by drought and this year's plantings the smallest on record in a two fingered salute to the government.
So with a wheat crop of only around 7.5 MMT potentially coming out of Argentina this year, and them consuming around 6.5-7.0 MMT themselves, there isn't going to be much left for Brazil's best mates to export this year.
Hungry Brazil are set to consume 11.4 MMT of wheat in 2009/10 according to yesterday's USDA figures, but with their own production badly affected by heavy rains they are likely to deficient to the tune of around 7 MMT this year, say Agrimoney.
Clearly the vast majority of that is now going to have to come from outside the bloc.
Well it's a good job that the shops are still open isn't it? Certainly the US will be fancying their chances of a slice of that action, as Brazilian millers are famously anti-Russian wheat.
Brazil's regular No 1 wheat supplier is Argentina, who in previous years have normally had enough to meet almost all of Brazil's import needs. Of course things haven't gone according to plan for the Argies in the last two years, with the 2008/09 crop wrecked by drought and this year's plantings the smallest on record in a two fingered salute to the government.
So with a wheat crop of only around 7.5 MMT potentially coming out of Argentina this year, and them consuming around 6.5-7.0 MMT themselves, there isn't going to be much left for Brazil's best mates to export this year.
Hungry Brazil are set to consume 11.4 MMT of wheat in 2009/10 according to yesterday's USDA figures, but with their own production badly affected by heavy rains they are likely to deficient to the tune of around 7 MMT this year, say Agrimoney.
Clearly the vast majority of that is now going to have to come from outside the bloc.
Well it's a good job that the shops are still open isn't it? Certainly the US will be fancying their chances of a slice of that action, as Brazilian millers are famously anti-Russian wheat.
Pound Slips Following BoE Inflation Report
The pound slipped following the release of the BoE's quarterly inflation report today, which said that inflation is likely to rise sharply in the near term, and that there are big downside risks for the UK economy.
Bank of England governor Mervyn King subsequently once again reiterated his opinion that a weak sterling would help the UK economy in terms of improving exports.
His comments come just over 24 hours after Fitch Ratings warned that the UK was the most likely of the G10 nations to lose it's AAA sovereign credit rating.
Bank of England governor Mervyn King subsequently once again reiterated his opinion that a weak sterling would help the UK economy in terms of improving exports.
His comments come just over 24 hours after Fitch Ratings warned that the UK was the most likely of the G10 nations to lose it's AAA sovereign credit rating.
Crude Oil Steady Ahead Of Stocks Data
Crude oil is steady around USD79/barrel this morning, ahead of a US Energy Dept report due at 15.30 GMT that is expected to show crude inventories rose by around a million barrels last week.
Hurricane Ida being downgraded as it made landfall, allowed workers to return to their posts in the Gulf of Mexico which also added a bearish touch.
On the positive side, a weak dollar continues to support crude. News that China - the world's second largest consumer of oil - imported almost 4.5 million barrels/day in October, it's second largest amount ever, was also seen as supportive.
Demand from China is providing a major boost for crude oil, with a slew of supportive data out overnight. Industrial output rose 16.1% in October, and power generation grew at it's fastest in 19 months.
Hurricane Ida being downgraded as it made landfall, allowed workers to return to their posts in the Gulf of Mexico which also added a bearish touch.
On the positive side, a weak dollar continues to support crude. News that China - the world's second largest consumer of oil - imported almost 4.5 million barrels/day in October, it's second largest amount ever, was also seen as supportive.
Demand from China is providing a major boost for crude oil, with a slew of supportive data out overnight. Industrial output rose 16.1% in October, and power generation grew at it's fastest in 19 months.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
CBOT Closing Comments
Corn
December corn futures closed at USD4.09, up 8 ¾ cents. Corn buyers came in about 11:30 to move the market to higher ground into the close. USDA projected corn prices will range between USD3.25 and USD3.85 for the marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. The DTN national average basis for corn widened to 37 cents under the December futures contract today. That would price corn at USD3.57 ½ for a national average at today's prices, which would be slightly above the mid-range of USDA's forecasted price. The weak technical picture of the US dollar makes corn attractive to foreign buyers. USDA reduced the 2009/10 corn production down to 12.921 billion bushels, decreasing the per acre yield to 162.9 bushels from 164.2 last month. Most of the country has minimal rain forecast over the next five days, so harvest should continue except for the south east corner of the US, where hurricane Ida will be dumping significant rain.
Soybeans
November soybean futures closeed at USD9.61 ½, down 2 ¾ cents, December soymeal futures at USD288.20, down USD6.10 and December soy oil futures at 37.56, cents, down 21 points. Soybean prices finished lower today. Soybeans had established a USD2.18 trading range in the June/July time frame and the price has remained basically in that range since. Prices for January soybeans are currently priced at USD9.68. The DTN national soybean basis widened 6 cents to 59 cents under the January futures price as harvest continues uninterrupted by weather. USDA is forecasting the marketing year weighted average price received by farmers for 2009/10 to range USD8.20 to USD10.20. Harvest should continue at a good pace over the next several days with 25% of the crop in the field as of Sunday. the USDA raised soybean production to 3.319 billion bushels with average yield of 43.3 bushels to the acre. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record crop of 63 million tons, increasing by one million tons from the October report.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat futures closed at USD5.23, up 3 cents. Wheat finished higher, staging a minor rally after 11:30. USDA reduced US wheat supplies by 4 million bushels decreasing HRS and durum production. Exports were lowered because sales are down as well as shipments. USDA decreased export projections by 25 million bushels to 875 million bushels. US ending stocks, if realized will be at a 10 year high at 885 million bushels. USDA predicts the weighted average price received by farmers for the 2009/10 marketing year to range USD4.65 to USD5.05. The price was reduced by 10 cents on both ends. The report reminded the trade the world has lots of wheat. Global supplies for 2009/10 are projected to increase 1.7 million tons. Sufficient supplies of Black Sea wheat are expected to limit exports for Europe and North America.
December corn futures closed at USD4.09, up 8 ¾ cents. Corn buyers came in about 11:30 to move the market to higher ground into the close. USDA projected corn prices will range between USD3.25 and USD3.85 for the marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. The DTN national average basis for corn widened to 37 cents under the December futures contract today. That would price corn at USD3.57 ½ for a national average at today's prices, which would be slightly above the mid-range of USDA's forecasted price. The weak technical picture of the US dollar makes corn attractive to foreign buyers. USDA reduced the 2009/10 corn production down to 12.921 billion bushels, decreasing the per acre yield to 162.9 bushels from 164.2 last month. Most of the country has minimal rain forecast over the next five days, so harvest should continue except for the south east corner of the US, where hurricane Ida will be dumping significant rain.
Soybeans
November soybean futures closeed at USD9.61 ½, down 2 ¾ cents, December soymeal futures at USD288.20, down USD6.10 and December soy oil futures at 37.56, cents, down 21 points. Soybean prices finished lower today. Soybeans had established a USD2.18 trading range in the June/July time frame and the price has remained basically in that range since. Prices for January soybeans are currently priced at USD9.68. The DTN national soybean basis widened 6 cents to 59 cents under the January futures price as harvest continues uninterrupted by weather. USDA is forecasting the marketing year weighted average price received by farmers for 2009/10 to range USD8.20 to USD10.20. Harvest should continue at a good pace over the next several days with 25% of the crop in the field as of Sunday. the USDA raised soybean production to 3.319 billion bushels with average yield of 43.3 bushels to the acre. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record crop of 63 million tons, increasing by one million tons from the October report.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat futures closed at USD5.23, up 3 cents. Wheat finished higher, staging a minor rally after 11:30. USDA reduced US wheat supplies by 4 million bushels decreasing HRS and durum production. Exports were lowered because sales are down as well as shipments. USDA decreased export projections by 25 million bushels to 875 million bushels. US ending stocks, if realized will be at a 10 year high at 885 million bushels. USDA predicts the weighted average price received by farmers for the 2009/10 marketing year to range USD4.65 to USD5.05. The price was reduced by 10 cents on both ends. The report reminded the trade the world has lots of wheat. Global supplies for 2009/10 are projected to increase 1.7 million tons. Sufficient supplies of Black Sea wheat are expected to limit exports for Europe and North America.
EU Wheat Ends Slightly Lower
EU wheat futures ended slightly lower Tuesday with London November feed wheat ending down GBP0.25/tonne at GBP104.85/tonne, and Paris November milling wheat down EUR0.75 at EUR124.75/tonne.
As per normal it was another day of apathy, with farmers reluctant sellers and buyers content to sit on their hands.
The long-awaited USDA report pegged global wheat production higher at 671.89 MMT, up from 668.12 MMT last month, although that was no great surprise.
We are really treading water at the moment until we get a clearer picture of Eu and FSU production later in the year. Output from India and China also warrants keeping an eye on, as there is potential there for some production hiccups later in the year.
As per normal it was another day of apathy, with farmers reluctant sellers and buyers content to sit on their hands.
The long-awaited USDA report pegged global wheat production higher at 671.89 MMT, up from 668.12 MMT last month, although that was no great surprise.
We are really treading water at the moment until we get a clearer picture of Eu and FSU production later in the year. Output from India and China also warrants keeping an eye on, as there is potential there for some production hiccups later in the year.
USDA Report Reaction
As ever, there's a lot of chaff to be sifted through, and as so frequently happens it may be that the report is history after the first half hours trading of the day.
The bottom line is that there wasn't a lot in the report that we didn't really know already.
The US will harvest a record soybean crop in 2009, despite the weather problems, TICK, we knew that. South American production will also likely be a record in 2010 with Brazil producing 63 MMT, TICK, and Argentina 53 MMT, TICK.
The USDA will stick it's head in the sand a little while longer yet with regards to Chinese corn production, they've already dropped it 10 MMT, you don't expect them to do the same again surely? TICK.
The USDA cocked up back in the summer with a rather low Russian wheat estimate, which they've gradually been clawing back ever since, hoping nobody would notice. TICK. Production in Kazakhstan and Ukraine is also higher than they have been saying. TICK. US export potential has been overstated, TICK.
Sorted.
The bottom line is that there wasn't a lot in the report that we didn't really know already.
The US will harvest a record soybean crop in 2009, despite the weather problems, TICK, we knew that. South American production will also likely be a record in 2010 with Brazil producing 63 MMT, TICK, and Argentina 53 MMT, TICK.
The USDA will stick it's head in the sand a little while longer yet with regards to Chinese corn production, they've already dropped it 10 MMT, you don't expect them to do the same again surely? TICK.
The USDA cocked up back in the summer with a rather low Russian wheat estimate, which they've gradually been clawing back ever since, hoping nobody would notice. TICK. Production in Kazakhstan and Ukraine is also higher than they have been saying. TICK. US export potential has been overstated, TICK.
Sorted.
USDA Crop Production Numbers
US soybean production seen at 3.319 billion bushels, with an average yield of 43.3 bu/acre. that's above the average trade expectation of 3.269 billion bu and 42.7 bu/acre.
Interestingly all the big leading "faces" like Allendale, Informa and FC Stone were in that kind of ballpark, with Informa and FCS actually a little higher than these numbers, so they might not be quite as bearish as at first glance.
Corn, conversely, came in a little below expectations at 12.921 billion bushels and a yield of 162.9 bu/acre. Pre-report estimates were for 12.995 billion and 163.7 bu/acre. All the leading faces were estimating in excess of 13 billion, so I guess you could call the corn numbers slightly bullish.
Both corn and beans are still record crops.
Elsewhere the USDA raised global soybean production by 4 MMT to 250.23 MMT, increases came from the US of 2 MMT, Brazil 1 MMT (to 63 MMT) and Argentina by 0.5 MMT to 53 MMT.
The world wheat crop was raised from 668.12 MMT to 671.89 MMT, with Canadian production only dropped 0.5 MMT to 24 MMT. Russian output was increased 2 MMT to 59 MMT, Kazakh output by 2 MMT to 17 MMT and Ukraine was upped a half million to 20.5 MMT.
Early calls from CBOT floor are corn up 2-4 cents, beans dn 5-10 cents.
Interestingly all the big leading "faces" like Allendale, Informa and FC Stone were in that kind of ballpark, with Informa and FCS actually a little higher than these numbers, so they might not be quite as bearish as at first glance.
Corn, conversely, came in a little below expectations at 12.921 billion bushels and a yield of 162.9 bu/acre. Pre-report estimates were for 12.995 billion and 163.7 bu/acre. All the leading faces were estimating in excess of 13 billion, so I guess you could call the corn numbers slightly bullish.
Both corn and beans are still record crops.
Elsewhere the USDA raised global soybean production by 4 MMT to 250.23 MMT, increases came from the US of 2 MMT, Brazil 1 MMT (to 63 MMT) and Argentina by 0.5 MMT to 53 MMT.
The world wheat crop was raised from 668.12 MMT to 671.89 MMT, with Canadian production only dropped 0.5 MMT to 24 MMT. Russian output was increased 2 MMT to 59 MMT, Kazakh output by 2 MMT to 17 MMT and Ukraine was upped a half million to 20.5 MMT.
Early calls from CBOT floor are corn up 2-4 cents, beans dn 5-10 cents.
EU Soyameal/Pellet Prices
Basis USD/tonne
Brazil pellets 48% CIF Rotterdam/Amsterdam
Afloat 430,00
Nov 427,00
Dec 425,00
Jan/March 394,00
May/Sep 339,00
Dutch Hipro 49% profat FOB Rotterdam/Amsterdam
Nov 445,00
Dec 442,00
Jan 431,00
Feb/Apr 414,00
May/Jul 354,00
May/Oct 357,00
Argentine Hipro 49% profat CIF Rotterdam/Amsterdam
Afloat 440,00-433,00
Nov 429,00
Dec 428,00
Jan/March 408,00
May/Sep 344,00
When The Going Gets Tough, The Funds Get Going
An interesting article on the first4farming website today here, suggests that there might be some interesting repercussions to fund money creeping back into the wheat market.
With all the ongoing hullabaloo concerning stricter regulation of the Chicago market, making it more difficult for the funds to operate, might they take their business elsewhere?
Like Liffe/Euronext?
They're hardly likely to find the kind of very low volumes that have been trading on London wheat recently attractive, that's for sure. Blimey, if they have a problem in the US with lack of convergence, imagine what that would do for the market here.
With all the ongoing hullabaloo concerning stricter regulation of the Chicago market, making it more difficult for the funds to operate, might they take their business elsewhere?
Like Liffe/Euronext?
They're hardly likely to find the kind of very low volumes that have been trading on London wheat recently attractive, that's for sure. Blimey, if they have a problem in the US with lack of convergence, imagine what that would do for the market here.
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