08/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with sharp losses. Weekly export sales were decent at 1,461,700 MT for 2016/17 (plus 6,000 MT for 2017/18), being up 10 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,869,700 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average, but still pretty good for the time of year. The USDA also announced another 136,000 MT of soybean sales to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. CONAB’s Brazilian soybean production estimate of 102.4 MMT was down only slightly from 102.6 MMT in November and represents around a 7.0% increase from Brazil’s 2015/16 total of 95.4 MMT. The USDA ag attaché in Brazil estimates this year’s soybean crop lower than that at 101 MMT, with exports at 57 MMT. The USDA are out tomorrow with their December WASDE report, and we can probably attribute most of today's action to profit-taking and book-aquaring ahead of that. The range of guesses for US soybean ending stocks is 428 to 514 million bu versus the previous 480 million, with an average of 474 million. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.27, down 22 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.37 3/4, down 21 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $312.40, down $6.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.05, down 67 points.
Corn: The market closed with losses of around 4 cents heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Weekly export sales of 1,495,400 MT for 2016/17 were up 96 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. That easily beat trade estimates that were running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. Exports of 1,366,400 MT were up 69 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (292,000 MT), Mexico (256,700 MT), Taiwan (214,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (182,000 MT) and Peru (72,800 MT). Brazil planting is almost 93% complete while Argentina is still lagging at 48% complete. Brazil's CONAB is estimating summer corn crop potential of 2016/17 at 27.06 MMT, down from the November forecast of 28.55 MMT, but still a 7% increase over last year. Brazil full crop estimate was essentially unchanged from November at 82.8 MMT, a sharp increase versus 2015/16. CNGOIC lowered it's forecast China's on corn consumption at 197 MMT, well below the USDA's 226 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's world corn ending stocks estimate from the USDA is 219.2 MMT, which would be 1 MMT larger than the November report. The Russian corn harvest is 86.8% complete at 14.8 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.46 1/2, down 4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher heading into tomorrow's report, possibly due to short-covering in Chicago. Weekly export sales of 503,100 MMT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was at the upper end of the expected 300,000 MT to 500,000 MT though. Exports of 555,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. India announced that they were to cut their current wheat import duty from 10% to zero. Trade ideas are that they could end up importing around 3 MMT, and possibly as much as 5 MMT, on the back of the move before new crop begins harvesting again in late Mar/April. That would be their largest imports since 2006/07. Australia and Ukraine are likely to be the main beneficiaries, but at least it would remove some surplus stocks from the global market. Sub-zero temperatures on the US Plains keep getting a muted mention, but the trade seems relaxed about winter kill ideas for now. Saudi Arabia are tendering for 715 TMT of hard wheat for Feb/Apr shipment, Ethiopia are in for 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat. The average of pre-report trade estimate for 2016/17 global ending stocks is 250.3 MMT in tomorrow's report. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.90 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, up 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat unchanged at GBP135.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR162.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR164.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne to EUR409.25/tonne.
Russia said that they'd exported 4.1 MMT of grains in November - a record for the month - taking their Jul/Nov season-to-date total to 17.5 MMT. Wheat accounted for 2.9 MMT of last month's total, along with 857 TMT of corn and 764 TMT of barley.
The 2016 Russian bunker weight harvest is now said to have reached 125.3 MMT off 97% of the planned area. Wheat is 98.2% harvested at 75.9 MMT, barley 97.3% done at 19.1 MMT and corn 86.8% complete at 14.8 MMT.
Saudi Arabia are tendering for 715 TMT of hard wheat for Feb/Apr shipment, at least some of which should come from the EU. Ethiopia are in for 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat (Black Sea origin may be the favourite for this one).
India have scrapped their 10% import duty on wheat at least through to the end of the season (March) due to the lower quality and production of this year's crop.
Indian imports might rise as high as 3 MMT in 2016/17 (Apr/Mar) on the back of the news, traders said.
Commerzbank forecast Chicago wheat prices at $4.10/bushel in Q4 of 2017, with those in Paris at EUR160/tonne, significantly lower than where both currently trade.
"The supply situation for many key agriculturals looks set to remain comfortable in 2017, meaning limited potential for prices to recover," they said, according to a report on Agrimoney.
"Conditions have been good so far, which points to another record crop next year. Overall, there are hardly any apparent risks to the global wheat supply over the next year now," they added.
07/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. The USDA announced the sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total 66,000 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 264,000 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. They also announced a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. So, the battle between strong nearby demand and record production continues. Whilst the demand from China is there now, there's growing concern that things might not look as rosy in the new year should things escalate between Trump/China and the latter decide to use soybeans as a bargaining tool. There will be plenty of South American soybeans on offer as an alternative by then. Ag Rural said that the Brazilian harvest in Mato Grosso will start early and that the state could harvest 7 MMT of beans in January alone. Dyness and heat in Southern Brazil and Argentina is starting to attract some notice, but has note demonstrated a major threat potential yet. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 1.0 to 1.4 MMT for soybeans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.49, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.59 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $319.20, down $1.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 37.72, up 10 points.
Corn: Corn closed a touch easier. There's some trade talk of US corn heading for Brazil to shore up their supplies depleted by aggressive early season exports and a slump in safrinha production in 2015/16. Prospects look much better for 2016/17, but the crop's not made yet. Argentine weather leans a bit friendly. US weekly ethanol production rose to 1.023 million barrels per day last week (the highest production level in 14 weeks), up from 1.012 million the previous week. Ethanol demand remains unusually strong as margins remain favourable. Year to date ethanol export shipments are up 19% from last year. This could mean that the USDA will increase their corn for ethanol usage estimate in Friday’s WASDE report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. French corn exports in October were 435,000 MT versus 590,000 MT a year previously. The largest buyers were the Netherlands (115.1 TMT), Spain (113.5 TMT), Germany (55.3 TMT) and Belgium (54.6 TMT). According to the forecasts of FranceAgriMer, in the current season corn exports will fall to 5.14 MMT (-15.7% compared to last season). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.50 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges. Cold temperatures continue to be forecast for US plains, but with large supplies, the trade is not too concerned. China said it sold just 6% of the 74,292 of US SRW wheat reserves offered up for sale at auction yesterday. Japan are tendering for 123,754 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. French soft wheat exports are struggling. Total October French wheat exports, including those within the EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller. The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1 MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening. That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are 300,000 MT and 500,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.86 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.82, down 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34, down 4 3/4 cents.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.60/tonne at GBP135.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR2.50/tonne higher at EUR162.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR163.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR412.00/tonne.
Palm oil was lower in Malaysia on profit-taking and with no major demand festivals coming up. Still, it's too early to day that the bull trend appears to be over. One analyst today raised their forecast for crude palm oil prices from 2,450 ringgit to 2,725 (+11%). They cite the strong US dollar, low stock levels and the effects of the US bio fuels mandate as well as the seasonal low production cycle in Q1 of 2017.
Talk persists that French growers might end up planting 5% more wheat for 2017 due to failed/never planted autumn rapeseed.
French wheat exports to non-EU destinations in October were poor at 293,000 MT versus 348,000 MT in September (-16%). This was also the lowest October volume since 2007. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller.
Total October French wheat exports, including those within the EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT.
French wheat imports in October on the other hand more than doubled to 192,000 MT, taking the season-to-date total to 435,000 MT. Bulgaria was the largest supplier in October with 131,000 MT.
Ukraine said that they'd exported 18.8 MMT of grains so far this season, including 10.2 MMT of wheat, 4.6 MMT of corn and 4.0 MMT of barley.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1 MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening. That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively).
IKAR said that Russian November wheat exports were a record high for the month at 2.7 MMT.
06/12/16 -- Beans closed higher, there was no "Turnaround Tuesday" today even if we did finish well off the intra-day highs. The USDA announced the sale of 198,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year, along with 246,000 MT to "unknown" and 132,000 MT to "unknown" for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. Stats Canada released a Canadian soybean production estimate of 6.46 MMT against the expected 6.2 MMT. European rapeseed prices are hitting 2 1/2 year highs on tight availability and already early concerns over plantings for 2017. Brazilian weather conditions look very good, Argentina less so. Brazil is 90% planted versus 88% last year and 80% on average at this time. The Argentine weather service is saying there's a high probability of Dec/Jan/Feb being drier than normal in central areas and Buenos Aires province, with temps normal to above normal. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.47 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.57 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $320.20, up $2.50; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.62, up 13 points.
Corn: Corn closed with small gains. The USDA reported sales of 276,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Stats Canada came out with a Canadian 2016 corn output estimate of 13.19 MMT versus the expected 13.1 MMT and compared to 13.56 MMT in 2015. Net US ethanol exports set an all-time record for the month of October and were the highest single month net export volume in 5 years at 122 million gallons the month before last. This was led by big sales to Canada and Brazil in the amounts of 35 million gallons and 43 million gallons respectively, reported FCStone. US DDG exports for October were slightly above the volume in September at 1.005 MMT. China continues to be a small customer compared to past years with only 124.7 TMT for the month, they add. Argentine weather remains a concern, although early calls on production are around 25-27% higher due to a sharp increase in plantings. Romania reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was down 5.6% on last year at 8.47 MMT due to a dry summer. In Russia, corn harvesting is 85.8% complete at 14.6 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.51, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.60 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Stats Canada put total Canadian wheat production at 31.7 MMT on a national average yield of 53.2 bu/acre. The trade was only expecting production at 30.7 MMT. This is also now 200,000 MT higher than the USDA's November estimate. ABARES ahev the Australian crop at 32.64 MMT versus the USDA’s 28.3 MMT estimate in November. Ikar cut their Russian wheat export forecast from 29 MMT to 28.5 MMT (USDA: 30.0 MMT) citing unfavourable weather and its impact on logistics, and intensified competition. "When the USDA first posited the export number for Russia it said it was a very aggressive number that required near perfection to achieve," said FCStone. Tunisia were said to have bought 117,000 MT of soft wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender, along with 55,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin. Traders surmise that the wheat may have been most likely of Argentine or Russian origin. China only sold 15% of the 2.8 MMT of wheat reserves offered up for sale at auction. Jordan were said to have bought 50,000 MT of milling wheat of optional origin in a tender. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.38 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
06/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed. Paris wheat rebounded from yesterday's contract lows and rapeseed marched on to new highs.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP135.20/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR159.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR163.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.50/tonne to EUR414.00/tonne.
Rapeseed continues to hit new highs, with prices currently at their best levels since April 2014, on reduced production and stocks this year and concerns already over the state of autumn plantings in countries like the UK, France and Ukraine.
Strong demand for soybeans is adding support for rapeseed, along with steady global soybean and palm oil prices.
Tunisia were said to have bought 117,000 MT of soft wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender, along with 55,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin. Traders surmise that the wheat may have been most likely of Argentine or Russian origin.
Romania reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was down 5.6% on last year at 8.47 MMT due to a dry summer. That's also 25% below the bumper crop achieved in 2014.
Kazakhstan said that they'd produced a 23.68 MMT in bunker weight, or 21 MMT in clean weight, grain crop this year. Wheat production will account for around 16 MMT of that clean weight total (the USDA are currently at 16.5 MMT). The USDA issue revised global S&D estimates on Friday.
Ikar cut their Russian wheat export forecast from 29 MMT to 28.5 MMT (USDA: 30.0 MMT) citing unfavorable weather and its impact on logistics, and intensified competition.
"When the USDA first posited the export number for Russia it said it was a very aggressive number that required near perfection to achieve," said FCStone.
Still, if they don't export it this year it will still be there as carryover stocks running into 2017/18.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT. Corn harvesting is 85.8% complete at 14.6 MMT.
Ukraine said that it had exported a record more than 1.35 MMT of corn in October, and has the potential to ship out around 18 MMT in total this season, some 9% more than in 2015/16.
05/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains to start the week, helped out by another set of strong weekly export inspections - 1.91 MMT. Loadings to date are running 4.1 MMT ahead of a year ago vs the 3.1 MMT projected for the full marketing year by the USDA. Adding to the friendly tone was the USDA announcing export sales of 426,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. ABIOVE raised projected Brazilian production to 101.4 MMT (but still lower than the 102 MMT predicted by the USDA). They also cut old crop soybean production by 500,000 MT to 96.1 MMT (96.5 MMT from the USDA). Informa estimated Argentina's new crop at 56 MMT (USDA: 57 MMT). Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.43 1/2, up 16 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.53 1/4, up 16 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $317.70, up $7.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.49, down 2 points.
Corn: The market closed with strong gains helped by a weaker US dollar and the decent gains posted by crude oil in recent sessions. There also seemed to be an element of "risk on" buying in various commodities maybe associated with the new month. Talk that South Korean buyers have been active buyers of not less than 10 cargoes of US corn in the past few days after global prices hit 2-month lows also leaned friendly. Weekly US export inspections of 1.15 MMT were better than expected too and over 3 times the level a year ago. Loadings to date are running 6.46 MMT over a year ago versus the USDA's projection for full season exports to top last year by 8.32 MMT. Informa was unchanged on Argentine corn production at 36.5 MMT, the same as the USDA. In Russia the corn harvest is 85.8% over at 14.6 MMT. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 456.4 TMT of corn last week, up from 438.1 TMT the previous week. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 12 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, Weekly export inspections came in at 453,633 MT, 85% larger than the previous week but that was a particular poor effort. This week's total was in line with expectations. "Even though this week’s loadings were nearly double a year ago values they are running around where they are normally for this general time period. This creates a situation which will likely cause the year’s total to fall short of the USDA expectations of a yoy increase of 5.44 MMT. So far the year to date numbers is 3 MMT over a year ago," said FCStone. Wheat has been getting some support from cold weather potentially threatening the US winter crop, exposed by little snow cover. ABARES forecast a record Australian wheat harvest of 32.64 MMT this year, up almost 35% on year ago levels due to favourable weather in the east. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest had now reached 75.9 MMT in bunker weight off 98.2% of the planned area. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.90 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.