Chicago closing comments: wheat weakness wins the day
It was always going to be about wheat weakness vs soybean strength tonight. One would have to win the battle, it was wheat weakness.
Wheat was on the defensive from the start, yet beans began the session fairly strong (reaching around 10c up early on) and it was always a struggle which one would win the day. It does happen, but not very often, that one closes weak and one strong, but normally strength in one drags the other higher or vice versa.
Tonight wheat dragged everything else lower. This, I believe, is a fundamental sign that wheat is in a serious long-term down-trend. Any recent bullish news has largely been ignored or brushed off. This is a classic sign of a market that has peaked big-style and is only going to work lower.
Having worked it's way to such a major never-seen-before high it isn't that difficult to envisage wheat still coming down a lot more from where it is now.
The thing that surprises me most is that none of the news that is driving the market lower is news that is particularly fresh.
The info being quoted at the moment is that the Ukraine have got lots of wheat about them, that was reported here back in February. India have got a great crop & won't need to import any wheat (Mar), EU crops are looking good (Feb), Australia could double it's output (Mar). It's all very old news, yet news that the market finally seems to be absorbing/accepting only now.
Wheat was on the defensive from the start, yet beans began the session fairly strong (reaching around 10c up early on) and it was always a struggle which one would win the day. It does happen, but not very often, that one closes weak and one strong, but normally strength in one drags the other higher or vice versa.
Tonight wheat dragged everything else lower. This, I believe, is a fundamental sign that wheat is in a serious long-term down-trend. Any recent bullish news has largely been ignored or brushed off. This is a classic sign of a market that has peaked big-style and is only going to work lower.
Having worked it's way to such a major never-seen-before high it isn't that difficult to envisage wheat still coming down a lot more from where it is now.
The thing that surprises me most is that none of the news that is driving the market lower is news that is particularly fresh.
The info being quoted at the moment is that the Ukraine have got lots of wheat about them, that was reported here back in February. India have got a great crop & won't need to import any wheat (Mar), EU crops are looking good (Feb), Australia could double it's output (Mar). It's all very old news, yet news that the market finally seems to be absorbing/accepting only now.