Overnight markets

eCBOT grains are mixed this morning with soybeans around 7-10c higher on ideas that last night's heavy losses, the most in more than a week, were a bit excessive and there is some need to factor back into the market the tight supply situation according to one analyst.

Still, at over $15/bushel, I'd say that the tight old-crop supply situation is factored in already! However, whilst there are some lingering doubts as to exactly what the Argy government's next move will be, having sensationally lost the Senate vote Wednesday night, it's highly unlikely that we will see a lot of downside in old-crop.

Pres Fernandez had said that she would "respect" the Senate's decision. But then again she is a "dirty cheating, penalty box diving, hand of God Argy," as one analyst said.

New crop and beyond is a different matter. The jury is obviously still out on the US weather across the rest of the summer so that crop could do anything. Add into the equation that Argentine plantings for next season look like they will be sharply higher from 2008's record crop and there is scope for downside potential.

Corn and wheat are dithering around either side of unchanged in early trade this morning, waiting for crude to make up its mind what it is going to do today.

Crude currently stands at $130.23/barrel and has just had it's biggest ever three day decline (in dollar terms) so I guess a bit of consolidation or a technical bounce today wouldn't be out of the question.

Production has been disrupted in lawless Nigeria this week, exactly why that should surprise anyone I don't really know. Production in lawless Nigeria is always disrupted.

"The market is sensitive to any real or potential supply disruptions,'' one analyst is quoted as saying. He must have had a day off on Wednesday when the US Energy Dept "found" 6 million barrels more oil stocks than analysts were expecting.

The pound is back below $2 after a report in today's FT suggests that the Treasury's new guidelines on spending would allow for the breaking of limits on public-sector debt. The pound is currently $1.9915.