What a difference a week can make, big jump seen in US corn yields
(DTNAg) -- What a difference a week can make -- in futures prices, and in crop prospects. Dec corn closed overnight at $7.13, 40 cents below a week ago.
But in that week, corn yield prospects have improved considerably, according to a weekly outlook from a private forecaster, AIR Worldwide.
In its weekly CropAlert email, the company put its current U.S. yield forecast at 143.8 bushels per acre, up from 142.1 a week ago.
AIR also issues an "enhanced yield forecast" based on "extending the current growing conditions by using weather projections from AIR's seasonal forecast model system," and this is the interesting number: the enhanced yield forecast now pegs U.S. corn at 153.6, up from 149.9 a week ago, and USDA's June estimate of 148.9.
Why such a jump? "Conditions in the flooded regions of the Mid-West have begun to improve, and the forecast is favorable for that improvement to continue," the company said in an email. Last week's outlook still reflected the uncertainty of the floods in the Midwest, according to Tim Doggett, senior research meteorologist at AIR. Doggett told me that he thinks maybe the flooding was early enough that crops could see a rebound.
He said it's important to note that the yield forecast is based on harvested acreage, something the weekly CropAlert does not forecast.
But if you use USDA's latest harvested acreage projection of 78.94 million acres, the increase in yield would take the crop up about 209 million bushels, to 12.04 billion bushels.
But in that week, corn yield prospects have improved considerably, according to a weekly outlook from a private forecaster, AIR Worldwide.
In its weekly CropAlert email, the company put its current U.S. yield forecast at 143.8 bushels per acre, up from 142.1 a week ago.
AIR also issues an "enhanced yield forecast" based on "extending the current growing conditions by using weather projections from AIR's seasonal forecast model system," and this is the interesting number: the enhanced yield forecast now pegs U.S. corn at 153.6, up from 149.9 a week ago, and USDA's June estimate of 148.9.
Why such a jump? "Conditions in the flooded regions of the Mid-West have begun to improve, and the forecast is favorable for that improvement to continue," the company said in an email. Last week's outlook still reflected the uncertainty of the floods in the Midwest, according to Tim Doggett, senior research meteorologist at AIR. Doggett told me that he thinks maybe the flooding was early enough that crops could see a rebound.
He said it's important to note that the yield forecast is based on harvested acreage, something the weekly CropAlert does not forecast.
But if you use USDA's latest harvested acreage projection of 78.94 million acres, the increase in yield would take the crop up about 209 million bushels, to 12.04 billion bushels.