EU Wheat Harvest Summary
Now that the EU wheat harvest has finally pretty much drawn to a conclusion I thought it might be an opportune time to analyse what the outcome is looking like for us and out near neighbours.
Final EU-27 output looks like being just short of 150mmt, around 30mmt up on 2007, as well as making the EU a keen exporter this also indicates that we will likley carryover an increased stock into the 2009/10 marketing year.
UK
Still to conclude in parts of the north & west. Final output estimated 16.5-17.0mmt compared to 13.7mmt last year. Yields generally pretty good, early quality fine, but later harvested material only feed.
FRANCE
Latest estimates peg soft wheat production at 34.7mmt, up 22%. Quality pretty good.
GERMANY
Wheat production here is estimated 17.5% higher at 25mmt, with yields averaging around 7.5mt/ha. Quality mixed, steady rains throughout August making for more feed wheat than they would have hoped for.
SPAIN
Production boosted by late season rains. Total grain production expected around last season's record 22.3mmt. Traditionally the UK's largest export home taking around a third of all our exports last season.
POLAND
Usually the EU's third largest producer. One of the few countries to see a production cut in 2008, with output estimated 8% lower at 23.2mmt. May need to import up to 1mmt wheat in 08/09.
ROMANIA/BULGARIA
Record plantings to take advantage of high prices towards the end of 2007 point to final output of 25mmt, more than double 2007's 10.3mmt. Quality poor, estimated at around 15% milling grade compared to 40-50% normally.
HUNGARY
Winter wheat production 5.62mmt, up from 4.0mmt in 2007/08. Quality very good.
UKRAINE
Harvested around 27mmt wheat, 13mmt more than last season and only 11% of it making top milling grade. Plans to export 20-22.5mmt wheat in the MY 2008/09, compared to just 3.7mmt in 2007/08.
RUSSIA
Still harvesting and rather cagey about final output. Final crop somewhere between 60-70mmt compared to just under 50mmt in 2007/08. A large harvest and low quality in the European part of the country, plus a small harvest and high quality in the Urals. Exports already running at a record pace and likely to stay that way.
Final EU-27 output looks like being just short of 150mmt, around 30mmt up on 2007, as well as making the EU a keen exporter this also indicates that we will likley carryover an increased stock into the 2009/10 marketing year.
UK
Still to conclude in parts of the north & west. Final output estimated 16.5-17.0mmt compared to 13.7mmt last year. Yields generally pretty good, early quality fine, but later harvested material only feed.
FRANCE
Latest estimates peg soft wheat production at 34.7mmt, up 22%. Quality pretty good.
GERMANY
Wheat production here is estimated 17.5% higher at 25mmt, with yields averaging around 7.5mt/ha. Quality mixed, steady rains throughout August making for more feed wheat than they would have hoped for.
SPAIN
Production boosted by late season rains. Total grain production expected around last season's record 22.3mmt. Traditionally the UK's largest export home taking around a third of all our exports last season.
POLAND
Usually the EU's third largest producer. One of the few countries to see a production cut in 2008, with output estimated 8% lower at 23.2mmt. May need to import up to 1mmt wheat in 08/09.
ROMANIA/BULGARIA
Record plantings to take advantage of high prices towards the end of 2007 point to final output of 25mmt, more than double 2007's 10.3mmt. Quality poor, estimated at around 15% milling grade compared to 40-50% normally.
HUNGARY
Winter wheat production 5.62mmt, up from 4.0mmt in 2007/08. Quality very good.
UKRAINE
Harvested around 27mmt wheat, 13mmt more than last season and only 11% of it making top milling grade. Plans to export 20-22.5mmt wheat in the MY 2008/09, compared to just 3.7mmt in 2007/08.
RUSSIA
Still harvesting and rather cagey about final output. Final crop somewhere between 60-70mmt compared to just under 50mmt in 2007/08. A large harvest and low quality in the European part of the country, plus a small harvest and high quality in the Urals. Exports already running at a record pace and likely to stay that way.