USDA Report Reaction/Early Call
At first glance the USDA report looks bullish for soybeans and corn and neutral wheat.
They cut Argy soybean output by 5.7mmt to 43.8mmt, whilst not off the radar as far as other estimates go, the trade was probably anticipating a more cautious approach from the USDA coming in around 45-46mmt.
They also lopped 2mmt off Brazilian production, which again was towards the higher end of what they were expected to do.
US soybean carryout was cut pretty much as expected.
Argy corn production was also slashed by 3mmt, again probably by more than anticipated. Brazilian corn output was left unchanged, a slight surprise as a modest cut had been anticipated.
US corn carryout was left unchanged, that was a big surprise as just about everybody was predicting an increase in stocks, so that is seen as mildly bullish too.
Argy wheat production was cut by 1.1mmt, now falling in line with estimates from the local exchanges.
Overall reaction is bullish beans, modestly bullish corn and neutral wheat.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 12-15c, corn up 3-5c, wheat 2-3c higher.
They cut Argy soybean output by 5.7mmt to 43.8mmt, whilst not off the radar as far as other estimates go, the trade was probably anticipating a more cautious approach from the USDA coming in around 45-46mmt.
They also lopped 2mmt off Brazilian production, which again was towards the higher end of what they were expected to do.
US soybean carryout was cut pretty much as expected.
Argy corn production was also slashed by 3mmt, again probably by more than anticipated. Brazilian corn output was left unchanged, a slight surprise as a modest cut had been anticipated.
US corn carryout was left unchanged, that was a big surprise as just about everybody was predicting an increase in stocks, so that is seen as mildly bullish too.
Argy wheat production was cut by 1.1mmt, now falling in line with estimates from the local exchanges.
Overall reaction is bullish beans, modestly bullish corn and neutral wheat.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 12-15c, corn up 3-5c, wheat 2-3c higher.