CBOT Closing Comments

It was all about the USDA planting intentions report today, and it was soybeans that got the surprise package so let's start with them...


May soybeans closed 47 1/2 cents higher at $9.52 a bushel, and Nov soybeans settled 50 cents higher at $8.92. USDA estimated soybean acreage at 76.024 million acres, the average trade guess was 79.25 acres. Total US crop acres are expected to fall 7.5 million acres from last year, this was also a major surprise for the market. Quarterly stocks figures were pretty much in line with expectations, although towards the lower end of the scale.


May Corn closed at $4.04 3/4, up 18 1/2 cents December Corn closed at $4.35 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents. The USDA estimated planting intentions at 84.986 million acres, broadly in line with expectations. Quarterly stock were also around what was expected for corn. Spillover strength came from soybeans, the DJIA, firmer crude and a weaker dollar. Month-end buying also supported corn as too did South Korea buying 275,000mt of corn earlier in the week, much of it US origin.


May CBOT Wheat at $5.32 3/4, up 20 1/4 cents. The USDA estimated 58.638 million acres of wheat, down 4.509 million acres from last year. As with corn, this and quarterly stocks data was pretty much on line with what was expected. The thing that has seemingly thrown everything out of kilter is that IF the soybean figure is correct, how can the corn & wheat figures also be? Where have the missing acres gone? Back into the CRP? Meanwhile the situation in North Dakota remains very important for spring wheat, the state produces 50% of the entire US spring crop, with the current severe flooding situation between 500,000 and 1 million acres of wheat in ND is unlikely to ever get planted.