CBOT Closing Comments


Grain trading this week is like a yo-yo – up, down, up, down but all the grains have made new annual highs this week with cash remaining firm. Typically, that is not bearish action. Corn export sales were 658,734 MT this morning, and on the low end of trade estimates of 650,000 to 950,000. They were also low compared to last week’s sales of 1,023,400 MT. Bookings do appear to still be on pace with USDA projections for the year. The 8 month high in crude oil boosted commodity markets in general as Fund Managers are looking for investment areas believing the economy is recovering. Funds bought back at least 5000 contracts of the 15,000 thousand they sold on Wednesday. July corn finished at $4.48 ½, up 16 cents.


Soybeans made new weekly and annual highs today along with the Soybean Meal. Soybean Oil made new annual highs this week influenced by Goldman Sachs’ prediction that oil prices will reach $85 a barrel by the end of the year. The USDA currently forecasts the average price of crude oil to be $60.00 for 2009. Soybean net export sales were 36,558 MT considerably lower than the trade estimates of 200,000 to 450,000 MT, however, there are three more months in the marketing year and total commitments are already at 33.736 MT, basically at USDA’s export sales projection for this marketing year. Temperatures are forecasted to remain cooler and wetter than normal through the 19th of June which is favorable to soybeans that are planted and have emerged.
July soybeans closed at $12.30, up 48 cents.


Wheat recovered some of yesterdays down move, supported by the uptrend line on all three exchanges and the lower dollar. Weather will be open for harvest in the southern plains over the next several days. Weekly export sales for all Wheat were 265,324 MT on the lower end of the trade estimates of 200,000 to 400,000 MT and compared to last week’s sales of 332,022 MT. May 31st ends the 2008/09 marketing year for all wheat. USDA projections were 1,010 million bushels (27.488 MMT) for 2008/09 export sales. There are a few days to add to the year, actual shipments to date have been only 25.625 MMT. This will be adjusted by shipments for the remaining days of May, and in July Census will adjust it for shipments that customs data measured but was not included in the USDA report. July CBOT wheat settled at $6.35 ¼, up 17 ¾ cents.