UK Wheat Supply/Demand #2
Following on from yesterday's piece about UK wheat supply & demand, and the likelihood that ending stocks will fall steeply in 2009/10, I note today that farm consultants Andersons are forecasting this year's UK wheat crop at 14.3 million tonnes. If we run with that figure, then that drops us below a million tonnes for next season's ending stocks (the table has been duly ammended).
Taking things a step further and factoring in this sharply lower carryout, plus the Vivergo plant starting up in the second half of 2010, makes the same table for 2010/11 look even more interesting:
The upshot being that by 2010/11 we would only have an exportable surplus of 0.86 MMT, around a third of what we normally export.
As Laurie White pointed out to me this morning, it won't only be here in the UK where this kind of scenario is being played out, it will be happening all over Europe too.
Taking things a step further and factoring in this sharply lower carryout, plus the Vivergo plant starting up in the second half of 2010, makes the same table for 2010/11 look even more interesting:
Opening stocks 0.86
Production 15.00
Imports 1.06
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Usage 16.92
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H&I Consumption 9.00
Animal Feed 6.65
Seed 0.30
Other 0.09
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Total Consumption 16.04
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Balance 0.86
The upshot being that by 2010/11 we would only have an exportable surplus of 0.86 MMT, around a third of what we normally export.
As Laurie White pointed out to me this morning, it won't only be here in the UK where this kind of scenario is being played out, it will be happening all over Europe too.