Wheat: Living On The Edge #2
I am indebted to my Slovakian corespondent, Marta, who has emailed me to point out a mistake from earlier in the week.
I inadvertently mixed up Russia's wheat production for 2008/09 and 2009/10, putting them in the wrong columns. As Marta points out, that makes the difference in wheat supply from the world's top exporting nations in the coming season even tighter.
I've also subsequently tweaked a couple of other production numbers in light of revised forecasts from Strategie Grains etc.
Here's what the table should look like now for the top six for 2009/10:
So the world's top six exporting nations are set to produce almost 50 MMT less wheat in the year ahead. Remember that these six countries account for over half of world production and 87.5% of global trade in wheat. Eighty seven and a half percent of world trade, that's a bloody big percentage.
There is the potential that final Russian output might increase a bit according to my sources. However production in Argentina could decrease yet, and in Australia anything could happen with it seeming more likely to be a downward revision rather than an upward one.
I inadvertently mixed up Russia's wheat production for 2008/09 and 2009/10, putting them in the wrong columns. As Marta points out, that makes the difference in wheat supply from the world's top exporting nations in the coming season even tighter.
I've also subsequently tweaked a couple of other production numbers in light of revised forecasts from Strategie Grains etc.
Here's what the table should look like now for the top six for 2009/10:
2008/09 (MMT) 2009/10 (MMT)
---------------------------------------------
US 68.0 57.0
EU-27 151.7 132.5
Russia 63.7 58.0
Canada 28.6 23.4
Australia 21.5 22.0
Ukraine 25.9 18.0
Argentina 8.3 7.7
---------------------------------------------
Total 367.7 318.6
---------------------------------------------
So the world's top six exporting nations are set to produce almost 50 MMT less wheat in the year ahead. Remember that these six countries account for over half of world production and 87.5% of global trade in wheat. Eighty seven and a half percent of world trade, that's a bloody big percentage.
There is the potential that final Russian output might increase a bit according to my sources. However production in Argentina could decrease yet, and in Australia anything could happen with it seeming more likely to be a downward revision rather than an upward one.