CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
July soybeans closed at $10.91 ½, down 36 ¾ cents, November soybeans at $9.11 ½, down 5 ½ cents further narrowing the old crop/new crop spread. Beans are vulnerable to funds unwinding heavy long positions, and bean/corn bean/wheat spreads. The old crop situation remains fundamentally tight, but new crop is bearish IMHO. US weather is non-threatening, and should produce a record crop in the autumn barring a huge catastrophe. South America will likely follow up with record, or near record, crops of their own in the spring.
Corn
July Corn ended at $3.59, up 13 ½ cents, and December at $3.39 ½, up 1 ½ cents. Corn benefited from the unravelling of long beans/short corn spreads. Corn also got a shot in the arm from ideas that it is undervalued viz-a-viz wheat, firmer equities and stronger crude oil. US weather continues to be kind to corn, and should promote some decent yields come harvest-time.
Wheat
July wheat finished at $5.15 ¾, up 24 cents, and clearly the strongest leg of the complex for once. Wheat prices were higher despite export sales inspections that were below the trade estimates. Wheat has become heavily oversold and was vulnerable to a corrective bounce today. The large specs have been adding to short positions all the way down, and decided to exit some of their exposure today.
July soybeans closed at $10.91 ½, down 36 ¾ cents, November soybeans at $9.11 ½, down 5 ½ cents further narrowing the old crop/new crop spread. Beans are vulnerable to funds unwinding heavy long positions, and bean/corn bean/wheat spreads. The old crop situation remains fundamentally tight, but new crop is bearish IMHO. US weather is non-threatening, and should produce a record crop in the autumn barring a huge catastrophe. South America will likely follow up with record, or near record, crops of their own in the spring.
Corn
July Corn ended at $3.59, up 13 ½ cents, and December at $3.39 ½, up 1 ½ cents. Corn benefited from the unravelling of long beans/short corn spreads. Corn also got a shot in the arm from ideas that it is undervalued viz-a-viz wheat, firmer equities and stronger crude oil. US weather continues to be kind to corn, and should promote some decent yields come harvest-time.
Wheat
July wheat finished at $5.15 ¾, up 24 cents, and clearly the strongest leg of the complex for once. Wheat prices were higher despite export sales inspections that were below the trade estimates. Wheat has become heavily oversold and was vulnerable to a corrective bounce today. The large specs have been adding to short positions all the way down, and decided to exit some of their exposure today.