CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
August soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $10.20 a bushel, November soybeans closed down 17 3/4 cents, further widening the old crop/new crop spread. If there's one bullish story in town for beans it's got to be old crop tightness. Exports are running at a strong pace and accumulated exports for the 2008/09 marketing year so far are 1.168 billion bushels. USDA export estimates for the full 2008/09 marketing year are 1.260 billion bushels, and the 2008/09 marketing year doesn't end until the first week of September. Beyond that though you've got to be bearish, with record production expected in the US come the autumn, plus probable record production in South America in the spring.
Corn
Sep corn ended down 10 3/4 cents at $3.16 1/4 per bushel and Dec corn ended down 11 1/2 cents at $3.27 1/4. US weather conditions are pretty good right now, plenty of moisture and no heat stress. Some concerns are around over the low number of growing degree days with continued forecasts for unseasonably cooler than normal temperatures. This leaves a late planted, slow maturing crop vulnerable to an early freeze should one come along in the autumn.
Wheat
September CBOT Wheat at $5.16 ¼, down 15 ½ cents. Weakness from corn spilled over into wheat today, and the market still has a cautious eye on what the FCTC regulators may do to attempt to improve CBOT wheat convergence with the cash market. Limiting index fund activity in wheat is still a possibility, which may lead to wide scale liquidation of wheat longs. With the CBOT soft red winter wheat contract the benchmark for global wheat prices, despite accounting for only 2% of the world wheat crop, that is a major concern.
August soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $10.20 a bushel, November soybeans closed down 17 3/4 cents, further widening the old crop/new crop spread. If there's one bullish story in town for beans it's got to be old crop tightness. Exports are running at a strong pace and accumulated exports for the 2008/09 marketing year so far are 1.168 billion bushels. USDA export estimates for the full 2008/09 marketing year are 1.260 billion bushels, and the 2008/09 marketing year doesn't end until the first week of September. Beyond that though you've got to be bearish, with record production expected in the US come the autumn, plus probable record production in South America in the spring.
Corn
Sep corn ended down 10 3/4 cents at $3.16 1/4 per bushel and Dec corn ended down 11 1/2 cents at $3.27 1/4. US weather conditions are pretty good right now, plenty of moisture and no heat stress. Some concerns are around over the low number of growing degree days with continued forecasts for unseasonably cooler than normal temperatures. This leaves a late planted, slow maturing crop vulnerable to an early freeze should one come along in the autumn.
Wheat
September CBOT Wheat at $5.16 ¼, down 15 ½ cents. Weakness from corn spilled over into wheat today, and the market still has a cautious eye on what the FCTC regulators may do to attempt to improve CBOT wheat convergence with the cash market. Limiting index fund activity in wheat is still a possibility, which may lead to wide scale liquidation of wheat longs. With the CBOT soft red winter wheat contract the benchmark for global wheat prices, despite accounting for only 2% of the world wheat crop, that is a major concern.