Indian Breadbasket Missed By Monsoon

Farmers in northern India are getting more than a little anxious over the extremely late arrival of monsoon rains this year.

What scant rains have arrived have done little to replenish parched soils in the country's main breadbasket states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

The agriculture belt of north India is now witnessing an overall rainfall shortage of 46%. Uttar Pradesh (the country's top wheat-producing state) tops the list, with a shortfall of 76%. Punjab (the second highest wheat producer) is witnessing a 69% deficit; not far behind are Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh with a 66% rainfall shortage. Haryana and Delhi saw some rain, but they are still 57% behind normal.

Here's a map of June rainfall compared with normal, with the main wheat growing area in the red box:

It Ain't Half Hot Mum

Further east provincial governments in Jharkhand and Manipur have declared a drought and half of Assam's 28 districts have also been declared drought areas, according to the Press Trust of India. Tea prices have soared say industry officials.

Whilst this is affecting planting of rice, soybeans and sugar cane now, lack of rain in northwest could also have a negative impact on winter wheat plantings in a few months time, experts warn.

With the monsoon rains already moving south, the world's second largest consumer of wheat is getting nervous. The recently re-opened export window was slammed shut after just ten days.

Meanwhile, far away in Australia experts say that the poor monsoon rains in India are a direct result of the formation of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which could also threaten crop production there later in the year.