USDA Crop Progress Report

Corn

The Crop Progress report showed the 18 reporting states that plant 92% of the corn at 31% silking same as last year, compared to 16% last week and 54% for the five year average. The crop condition is 7% poor to very poor and 71% good to excellent, losing 1% from the excellent falling into the good.

Soybeans

The report said that 44% of the crop is blooming, 1% above last year and compared to 62% for the five year average. 8% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, same as last week and 67% good to excellent, gaining 1% in the good category from last week.

Wheat

Winter wheat is 100% harvested in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. Nebraska and Colorado are behind the five year average but about the same as a year ago. Total wheat harvest is 72% complete nationally, same as a year ago and compared to 77% for the five year average. Spring wheat is 84% headed compared to 93% for last year and the five year average. Spring wheat was rated 73% good to excellent from 71% a week ago.

Perhaps the most striking thing here is that all three crops are lagging in development: corn 31% silking compared to 54% on the five year average, beans 44% blooming compared to 62% normally and spring wheat 84% headed versus a norm of 93%.

Despite crop conditions being largely ideal, this late development will inevitably mean harvesting a couple of weeks later than normal, leaving vulnerability to end of season weather.

In the case of soybeans, it also means eeking out tight old crop stocks for a couple of weeks longer than they'd like. Hence last night's price action reinforcing nearby premiums.