Playing Devil's Advocate With The Wheat Market

European wheat futures have edged up a tad now that the harvest is largely in the bin, with many farmers being reluctant sellers at current levels.

Having fallen thirty quid since the beginning of June, London wheat has had the temerity to post a little rise of GBP2.75 (currently) in the last two sessions, much to the angst of some.

"To be honest, the movement seems excessive and hard to explain. External factors are driving the market," one Reuters pundit bleats.

"It's very difficult to be anything but bearish," says another punter, adding that "Spain's dockside silos are already full to bursting".

Chuck in "It might rally a bit higher in the short term...but there's no bull argument for it," with a dash of "buyers are simply not prepared to bid any more".

All spoken like men who are maybe rather keener to buy than they might like to make out?

My response to all that would be what I call my Milk Link approach: "well if you already have a queue of sellers as long as your arm, what are you doing knocking on my door?"

There's a bit of a difference between the current market and twelve months ago, perhaps the most over-riding factor is that this year we've got the Eastern Europeans moaning about prices being below production too. They aren't such eager sellers themselves this time round.

If the buyers don't want to bid, sod 'em, let them come back when they do.

You can't load a boat with fresh air you know.