Early Thoughts On Russian Grain Output For 2010
Nogger's favourite website Agrimoney.com is carrying an interesting story relating to early thoughts on the size of Russia's grain harvest this coming season (here).
Already it seems that early estimates of a crop of 90 MMT might be "conservative" they say.
You may recall that for much of the past two season's official estimates have subsequently proven to be significantly understated when the crops are finally all in.
Indeed, for large parts of 2008, the Russian Ag Ministry took "conservatism" to new levels. As late as August 2008, and with 42 MMT already cut, they were still predicting a total grain crop of 85 MMT, for what subsequently turned out to be a harvest in excess of 108 MMT!
Of course their are a variety of reasons why government have a vested interest in not being too accurate with their crop numbers.
SovEcon on the other hand have a proven track record of being far more consistently accurate.
Already it seems that early estimates of a crop of 90 MMT might be "conservative" they say.
You may recall that for much of the past two season's official estimates have subsequently proven to be significantly understated when the crops are finally all in.
Indeed, for large parts of 2008, the Russian Ag Ministry took "conservatism" to new levels. As late as August 2008, and with 42 MMT already cut, they were still predicting a total grain crop of 85 MMT, for what subsequently turned out to be a harvest in excess of 108 MMT!
Of course their are a variety of reasons why government have a vested interest in not being too accurate with their crop numbers.
SovEcon on the other hand have a proven track record of being far more consistently accurate.