An Interesting Question For The Statisticians Out There
Seeing as a lot of the talk in the market at the moment is of the imminent arrival of fund money in the grain markets to save the day....
If you toss a perfectly normal, perfectly balanced coin 99 times and it lands on heads all 99 times, what are the odds on it landing heads again on toss #100?
a) 99/1 against, the law of averages says that over the course of time it will land heads and tails an equal number of times. Therefore the chances of it landing heads again are HUGE, tails must be the hot favourite to help redress the balance. How can you not see that?
b) 1/99, odds on, if it's landed heads the last 99 times then it's heavily odds on that it's going to do it again surely? Do you fancy a game of poker, you idiot?
c) Evens, forget what's happened in the past, it's a perfectly evenly balanced coin, the odds each time it's tossed are even money. Who do you think you are, Rainman?
If you toss a perfectly normal, perfectly balanced coin 99 times and it lands on heads all 99 times, what are the odds on it landing heads again on toss #100?
a) 99/1 against, the law of averages says that over the course of time it will land heads and tails an equal number of times. Therefore the chances of it landing heads again are HUGE, tails must be the hot favourite to help redress the balance. How can you not see that?
b) 1/99, odds on, if it's landed heads the last 99 times then it's heavily odds on that it's going to do it again surely? Do you fancy a game of poker, you idiot?
c) Evens, forget what's happened in the past, it's a perfectly evenly balanced coin, the odds each time it's tossed are even money. Who do you think you are, Rainman?