EU Wheat Closing Comments

March London wheat closes GBP0.30 lower at GBP92.45/tonne, March Paris wheat EUR1.25 lower at EUR122.25/tonne.

Another dismal week for EU wheat really, with London wheat the largest faller of all the grain/oilseed commodities so far during 2010.

French wheat did at least manage to get a look in at Egypt's tender yesterday, winning a sale of one 60,000 MT cargo, although once again the lion's share went to Russian wheat (240,000 MT).

Much as I'd like to be bullish, the market fundamentals don't offer me many reasons to get carried away, certainly not during 2010. I'm afraid that it looks like it is going to take at least another twelve months for the market mechanics to shift.

EU wheat struggled to break through support at EUR125/tonne, but now that it's done it that becomes a resistance level. March London wheat now only needs to lose another GBP2.50/tonne to have an eight in front of it. If it goes much lower than that then we are looking at ex-farm levels starting with a seven. That's dire.

Meanwhile all over Europe we've got wheat crops growing in the field that look like producing a 2010 harvest pretty close to 2008's bumper levels.

Thankfully most other northern hemisphere nations have scaled back wheat plantings for 2010.

Let's pray for a crop disaster or three. Possibly four or five would be good.