EU Wheat Closing Comments

EU wheat futures closed mixed with London wheat ending with March GBP0.35 lower and Jul GBP1.00 higher; Paris wheat closed with March unchanged and May up EUR0.75.

March Paris futures managed to avoid breaking through the EUR120/tonne level despite a firmer euro and weaker dollar.

Ideas that austerity measures from Greece might avoid the need for an EU bailout buoyed the single currency. The pound was stronger too after better than expected consumer confidence data, although downwards pressure still remains on both currencies.

Although there are signs that the fortunes of wheat might improve somewhere down the line, we are a long way from there yet - particularly in Europe. We still have to get over the burden of high stocks and slack demand first.

The trade already seems to be waiting for some direction from next Wednesdays USDA reports, although for once personally I feel that they are unlikely to throw up too many surprises.

After that the next really big date in the calendar is March 31st, when they release their prospective plantings report. By then also we may have a better idea how EU, US and FSU wheat crops are emerging from winter dormancy.

Between now and then it would seem that market fluctuations will mainly be down to currency.