EU Wheat Closing Comments
London wheat ended with May GBP2.60 higher at GBP104.50/tonne, and May Paris wheat down EUR1.25 at EUR131.00/tonne.
The recent market action has bamboozled many, although it can probably be attributed to a number of factors:
a) "distressed" sellers like Ukraine are pretty much sold out now until new crop arrives.
b) export sales have picked up.
c) farmers are too busy with fieldwork to actually sell anything.
d) large speculative shorts are getting squeezed out.
It is also worth noting comments on Agrimoney.com earlier in the week: "Anomalies caused by the death throes of the May contract were forcing a wave of short-covering by speculators before Friday, when investing in the lot will mean being prepared to take physical delivery."
So is this rally a God-given opportunity to sell? Almost certainly yes I'd say, although as ever timing is everything. We may well see prices move a bit higher from here on in yet, but I would say with some degree of certainty that prices WILL be lower than they are currently come mid-summer.
The recent market action has bamboozled many, although it can probably be attributed to a number of factors:
a) "distressed" sellers like Ukraine are pretty much sold out now until new crop arrives.
b) export sales have picked up.
c) farmers are too busy with fieldwork to actually sell anything.
d) large speculative shorts are getting squeezed out.
It is also worth noting comments on Agrimoney.com earlier in the week: "Anomalies caused by the death throes of the May contract were forcing a wave of short-covering by speculators before Friday, when investing in the lot will mean being prepared to take physical delivery."
So is this rally a God-given opportunity to sell? Almost certainly yes I'd say, although as ever timing is everything. We may well see prices move a bit higher from here on in yet, but I would say with some degree of certainty that prices WILL be lower than they are currently come mid-summer.