Spanish Armada

What's going on in Spain? Nobody seems to know. No country has ever won the World Cup after losing their first game, and suddenly many people's favourites to win the tournament look like they could be heading home.

Nobody seems to know what is going on with their wheat crop either. Even though harvesting is underway, estimates on the size of the crop vary quite alarmingly. A bit like some of the Spanish passing the other day.

According to the leading farmers' union, Asaja, soft wheat production there will come in at 3.5 MMT this season, only marginally higher than last years crop of 3.4 MMT.

The government are predicting a crop of just over 4 MMT. Yet Accoe, the Spanish grain merchants' association, this week estimated soft wheat production at almost 5 MMT. Are Accoe just being wildly optimistic, just like they were about their teams chances of lifting the coveted World Cup?

Certainly Spain, traditionally the UK's biggest wheat export home, has had plenty of rain this season, with flash flooding occurring in several regions of the country including the main wheat producing areas. Whether that rain has done more harm than good seems to be a bone of contention.

It seems that it isn't just the size of the crop estimates that are varying quite widely, reports of early harvested wheat suggest that quality is all over the shop too. A bit like the Spanish defence against Switzerland.

Durum wheat production meanwhile is expected to fall quite sharply this year to around 800,000 MT from 1.3 MMT in 2009, as Spanish farmers cut back on plantings due to the volume of unsold durum still kicking around from last season's harvest.