Early Call On CBOT

The overnight trade closed mostly a little lower with beans down around 7-9c, corn down 2-3c and wheat narrowly mixed.

Crude oil is a dollar lower and the USD a bit firmer across the board.

Stock markets are lower across the globe, led by Japan where the the Nikkei 225 index fell more than 3.5% to a fresh 16-month low.

FC Stone are expected to release their September S&D estimates tomorrow with Informa due out on Friday ahead of the USDA a week later.

Most of the trade continue to talk of lower US production for beans and corn than the USDA's August predictions, although they stubbornly keep holding good/excellent ratings steady.

Most of the trade also seem to think that Russia will need to import up to 5 MMT of grains in 2010/11.

Whilst they're at it the bulls are pointing towards dryness in Argentina and Western Australia as more causes for concern for wheat in particular.

"The southern hemisphere is going to be like really important this year. A bad crop there and we are surely done for...etc," the numpty newswires keep churning out.

They forget to mention, or possibly don't even know that combined Australia and Argentina only account for around 5% of global wheat production.

Ah, but they're big exporters you see. OK well they accounted for 14% of world exports in 2009/10, which means they didn't account for 86% of them. And anyway production there is likely to be at worst unchanged (Australia - where crop conditions in the east are outweighing any problems in the west) or up by at least a third in a worst case scenario in Argentina.

It's raining in Germany. It sure is, and that rain is heading into western Russia by the end of the week.

The floods in Pakistan then, they've done all sorts of damage haven't they? What, like giving the ground a good soaking before wheat planting begins in October? Like causing them to cancel plans to export 2 MMT of wheat that was never on the export radar anyway?

And I haven't even got started on winter plantings potentially be up big time in the US and Europe yet.

There were a hefty 4413 deliveries against the September CBOT contract today, first notice day, with Minneapolis also picking up a heavier than expected 968 contracts. KCBT deliveries will be announced later.

CBOT Early Call: Corn down 2-3c, wheat down 1-2c, soy down 7-9c.