Early Vibe

14/10/10 -- Nice, but ever so slightly wet, French analysts Strategie Grains have increased their EU-27 soft wheat production estimate by 700,000 MT from last month to 127.9 MMT. They've upped their barley estimate too, by 400,000 MT to 52.7 MMT. Corn production is seen down 400,000 MT from last month to 55.6 MMT.

The pound has popped up above 1.6050 against a weak US dollar for the first time since late January.

Gold prices have reached a fresh all time high in dollar terms close to USD1.390/oz this morning. Chinless wonders Goldman Sachs have raised their 12-month gold price forecast to USD1,650/oz.

The US Environmental Protection Agency has approved a higher concentration of ethanol in gasoline. The move to allow the so-called E15 blend in newer cars looks a lot like a politically motivated move designed to help the Democrats in the nation’s Corn Belt. It comes just three weeks before the mid-term elections.

The move seems to have been met with surprisingly relative apathy by the corn market so far, although corn is around 8c firmer on the overnight Globex market.

Winter grain plantings in Ukraine are now running slightly ahead of last years pace at 6.76 million hectares. Corn harvesting is around three quarters complete, with sunflower harvesting "on the final leg" according to my chum Mike Lee in Ukraine.

It's the Hull Corn Trade Dinner tonight, marking my second corporate jolly of the week, hence the lack of blogging. If you're in attendance then come and say hello.