Nogger's Blog

23/03/11 -- EU wheat closed narrowly mixed with expiring Mar London wheat going out with a whimper, unchanged at GBP192.00/tonne and new crop Nov GBP0.25 easier at GBP156.25/tonne. May Paris wheat declined EUR0.50 to EUR224.50/tonne, with Nov down EUR0.25 at EUR201.25/tonne.

By comparison to what we've become used to recently this was just like the old days! London wheat opened around GBP3.00-3.50/tonne higher early doors but failed to hang onto those gains.

In the UK Defra pegged 2010/11 ending stocks at 1.6 MMT - "one of the lowest levels of recent times" - finally noticing that exports are running well ahead of previous projections. They did however also cut their predictions of H&I usage and that from the feed sector, noting lower livestock numbers and inclusion rates for wheat.

Spring is both officially, and in reality here, with temperatures in North Yorkshire hitting 17-18C this afternoon.

"Western Europe is warming up nicely with highs in the 60's F in the UK, France Germany and Poland yesterday. A rainy forecast for Central Europe would relieve drought, where we have 3-4 inch moisture deficits in central France, Germany, Benelux and Hungary in the recent 60 days. Warmth with showers is forecast to continue," say Martell Crop Projections.

The FAO peg world wheat output up 3.4% to 676 MMT this year, including Russian production up by a third to 55 MMT.

The IGC are out tomorrow with their March grain production and stocks numbers, and also tomorrow we will get the latest export figures from Brussels.