EU Wheat Leaps

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 18:54 | Categorized as

17/03/11 -- EU grains continued with their stunning rebound from recent steep losses with Mar London wheat closing GBP13.70/tonne higher at GBP189.05/tonne and new crop Nov up GBP9.60 to GBP188.20/tonne. May Paris wheat rose EUR17.50/tonne to EUR223.75/tonne and Nov was EUR12725/tonne higher at EUR202.75/tonne.

Having fallen GBP14.50/tonne in the first two days of the week, London wheat has now regained all of those losses back and then some in the last two sessions - putting on an amazing GBP21.70/tonne. Even so, we are still GBP21.20/tonne below the Feb all time highs. I think that this safely qualifies us as being a volatile market!

NYMEX crude oil jumped more than USD3.50/barrel and Brent by more than USD4.50/barrel on continued unrest in Bahrain and Libya.

Strategie Grains reduced their EU-27 2011 soft wheat production estimate by 300,000 MT from last month to 135.5 MMT, although that is still up 7% on last year.

They also upped their 2010/11 EU soft wheat export estimate from 18.4 MMT to 19 MMT.

Brussels issued soft wheat export licences for 540,000 MT this past week, a sharp increase from what we have witnessed of late and the second highest weekly total of the year.

That brings the total for the marketing year to date to 14.6 MMT, almost 2 MMT higher than this time last year.

On the weather front "in Europe there showers again today in the south of France, Italy and the former Yugoslavia. Dryness is still prevailing elsewhere however with hardly any rain in a over a month in Central Europe and unseasonable warmth in the past 7 days in continental Europe at 5-7 F above normal," say Martell Crop Projections.