Nogger's Blog

16/03/11 -- EU grains rebounded from recent steep losses today with Mar London wheat closing GBP8.00/tonne higher at GBP175.35/tonne and new crop Nov up GBP3.60 to GBP148.60/tonne. May Paris wheat rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR206.25/tonne and Nov up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR190.00/tonne.

Having lost GBP14.50/tonne over the last two sessions then I guess that some form of correction was due for old crop London wheat. However, GBP8.00/tonne looks rather excessive to me compared with a rebound of only EUR3.25/tonne across the Channel. I'd already stick my neck out and forecast, as things stand, a lower London opening in the morning.

Egypt is forecasting at 25% increase in it's wheat output this year to 10 MMT. Moody's also downgraded the world's largest wheat buyer's credit rating today, saying that their ability to maintain government stability was under question in it's current transitionary state.

They also downgraded Portugal’s debt rating by two notches, putting the euro under a bit of pressure.

Market attention remains focused on Japan, where buyers seem to be delaying grain purchases until they have a clearer idea on the logistics behind port workings and internal transportation.

European Energy Minister Gunther Oettinger said today that Japan's nuclear facility at Fukushima was "out of control" and that "in the coming hours, there could be further catastrophic events."

Tunisia are tendering for 25,000 MT of milling wheat, with Jordan also in the market and Turkey rumoured to have bought German wheat on Monday.