Nogger's Blog

03/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, but mostly lower with beans down around 10-12c, corn 2-4c easier on old crop and 6-8c firmer on new crop, wheat was down 2-5c.

Crude oil is almost a dollar and a half weaker on the back of the Bin Laden news and the dollar is firmer. Both are negative for grains. Metals are also lower.

Corn is up on new crop after last night's disappointing planting progress data, although the outlook for the week ahead promises some ground to be made up this week. Even so it's already a given that next Monday's numbers will also be well behind normal for this time of year.

US winter wheat crop conditions showed a further slight deterioration, whilst spring plantings are well behind.

As mentioned earlier the whole thing looks tired, despite there being plenty of bullish stories out there. Bizarrely, the size of fund length, and their willingness (or otherwise) to hang onto it, might be the most bearish factor around.

This week's export sales report will be of interest. Is demand for US corn and soybeans slipping? I think so, and it may be another disappointing set of numbers on Thursday.

China are to auction off another 300,000 MT of soybeans tomorrow, suppressing the need for imports.

Celeres have upped their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 72.55 MMT.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12c, corn down 2-4c old crop and up 4-6c on new crop, wheat down 3-5c.