Nogger's Blog

21/07/11 -- EU grains finished with Nov London wheat GBP2.65/tonne lower at GBP163.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat EUR5.00/tonne weaker at EUR194.25/tonne.

Markets were modestly lower for much of the day but found fresh impetus later in the session after US markets came in sharply down on the back of revised less threatening weather forecasts for the Midwest.

Rain delaying harvesting in northern France, Germany and the UK is seen moving away this weekend, with some optimism that next week could be largely warm and dry. Things are a little sketchy yet but at least one weather service used the word "heatwave" to describe the outlook for the last week of the month.

Production and export forecasts coming out of the Black Sea keep increasing, regardless of what is happening in Europe and the US. Prices there are still significantly cheaper than elsewhere as Russia and Ukraine continue to mop up most of the decent tenders kicking around.

Morning reports suggested that France and Germany have reached some sort of provisional accord regarding Greek debt. The euro was relatively unmoved by the rumours and is maybe waiting for some more concrete evidence to emerge overnight.

It is of course in the interests of these two nations to persuade others to agree to another Greek bailout as they are the ones with the most exposure. At a reputed USD56.7 billion for France and USD33.9 billion for Germany they are way ahead of the next closest eurozone nation in the exposure table, Italy, who has "just" USD4.0 billion at stake.

This crisis continues to throw up more questions than answers. Will the rest of the eurozone continue to keep throwing good money after bad when many themselves are teetering on the brink? And who's next and what happens then?