The Morning Vibe

26/07/11 -- Lots of very kind Irish blokes wanted to buy me a beer last night, so what could I do? They liked my Paddy and Mick in the jungle joke. The one where they chance across an enormous gorilla and quick-thinking Paddy swiftly kicks it in the nuts to temporarily disable it and shouts "Run Mick, run!" to which Mick replies "Why? I haven't done anything."

After a lower close last night the USDA have predictably reduced the crop ratings for both beans (down 2 points good/excellent) and corn (down 4 points). Hence we are in the usual turnaround Tuesday mode this morning.

The only way to get bullish on wheat is to buy heavily into the US weather story and the potential for it to lead to serious corn losses.

Russia's internet connection must be down because they don't seem to know about any kind of weather issues, all they know is that they've got significantly higher under the counter carryover stocks than the USDA or anybody else in the west realised.

They've also got harvest pressure and the chance to bag themselves some much needed cash to buy seed and fertiliser for the 2012 crop.

Hence they're exporting at a rapid pace, and having just made sure that they got the last two Egyptian orders they will be expecting a hat-trick when the world's largest wheat buyer tenders again today.

The clock is ticking on the US debt ceiling issue, which will no doubt go to the wire, keeping the market nervous for a few more days yet.

Greece are starting to look a bit like "Little Derek" the alcoholic tramp who lives in the park. It's a close call as to which of those to are the least likely to pay you back that money that they owe you.

But we don't need to panic about that just yet do we? As long as we have some cash in our pockets to get the beer in tonight where's the worry?