Nogger's Blog

01/08/11 -- The overnight grains were higher on relief that a deal appears to have been struck over the weekend to avert a US debt default. It still has to get past the Senate and House yet before it is written in a tablet of stone though.

Wheat finished around 12-14c higher on the news, with corn up 7-9c and beans up 13-15c. Crude oil is currently two and a half dollars higher and the USD is weaker on the back of the news.

Yield losses in corn are being factored in, although I suspect that the USDA maybe won't concur, or at least not by as much as the market thinks, next week.

Before that we have the crop condition rating this evening. I'm expecting a drop of 1-2 points good/excellent for both corn and beans.

Black Sea grain continues to mop up many of the larger export orders kicking about. Russia has wasted no time getting it's 2011/12 season off to a flyer, although activity out of Ukraine has been more subdued due to customs problems. Be assured though that they have got plenty of grain to sell and will be eager exporters before too long.

Iran has said that it will be have 2 MMT of wheat to export in 2011/12, an unusual position for them to be in.

China says that it will import "only" 3.15 MMT of soybeans this month, a reduction of a third on this time twelve months ago, due to slack demand and increased government sales.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 12-14c, beans up 13-15c, corn up 7-9c.