Nogger's Blog

02/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat and corn down a couple of cents and beans mostly a couple higher. Crude oil is around 50c weaker and the dollar up a tad ahead of this afternoon's Senate vote expected to pass the raising of the US debt ceiling.

The USDA has announced the switching of 550,000 MT of old crop soybean sales to China into new crop. Some news services currently seem to be reporting this as simply a new crop sale, but this is not the case as I understand it.

The bulls are still talking corn losses and tight stocks. The bears are talking the wider implications of global economic uncertainty and a double dip recession.

Italy is now getting drawn into the European debt crisis along with Spain, both of whom could be too big to bailout.

Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of feed barley, which will likely go the way of Russia or Ukraine. Japan is tendering for 103 TMT of US wheat.

Russia exported a record volume of grain in July, and doesn't look like letting up that pace anytime just yet.

Ukraine has already harvested more wheat and barley than the USDA have them down to produce this year.

The European harvest has restarted in northern France after a week or so of rain, without too many reports of significant quality issues. Soft wheat production there is now seen around the 33 MMT mark, in the region of 2.5 MMT down on last year.

Yesterday's export inspections for wheat were pretty poor, so this week's export sales will make interesting reading to see if there is any evidence that the US is losing business as it prices itself out of the market.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 2-3c, wheat down 1-2c, soybeans up 1-2c.