Nogger's Blog

04/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower in a further correction from Tuesday's steep gains. Wheat ended with losses of 10-15 cents, with beans falling a similar amount and corn 10-12 cents easier. Both front month September wheat and corn ended below the USD7.00/bushel mark.

On the week so far, including the overnights, front month corn is up 29 1/4 cents, wheat up 25 1/2 cents and beans down 4 3/4 cents.

Crude oil is lower again today, hovering around USD91/barrel, the dollar is higher and gold is up as economic jitters reverberate around the globe.

The USDA have reported a fairly decent set of weekly export sales with wheat and beans at the top end of trade estimates, although corn sales fell slightly short. Namely, wheat sales of 504,000 MT (against expectations of 350 to 500 thousand MT), corn sales of 758,600 MT (850 thousand to 1.1 million MT expected) and 680,200 MT of soybeans (450 to 650 TMT expected).

They've also reported the sale of 174,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China under the daily reporting system.

US weather forecasts say "welcome cooling is on the way with variable rains the next 7 days," according to Martell Crop Projections. That appears to be cooling fund appetite to press the market much higher ahead of next week's USDA reports, and serving as a reminder that yield potential can go up as well as down in August.

The stop-start European harvest looks set for another impromptu break as wetter weather moves in from the west. Not much damage has been done yet.

Egypt have just bought three cargoes of Russian wheat and one of Romanian wheat at levels around USD262.00-262.50/tonne.

Informa Economics are due out with their thoughts on yields and crop production later in the day.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 12-15 cents lower, wheat and corn down 10-12 cents.