Nogger's Blog

29/09/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD12.30, up 6 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.41 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Oct 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD316.90, up USD1.50; Oct 11 Soybean Oil closed at 51.63, up 8 points. The markets breathed a small collective sigh of relief after Germany voted to extend EU bailout funding. Weekly export sales were strong at just over 1 MMT compared to the 550-750 TMT that the trade was expecting, with China taking 845,600 MT of the total. Funds were estimated to have bought 9,000 soybean contracts on the dsy as they position themselves ahead of tomorrow's USDA stocks numbers where a figure of 225 million bushels is the average trade expectation.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.32 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.45 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents. The news out of Germany was supportive, although this can only be described as a very modest recovery indeed from yesterday's steep losses. The trade is expecting tomorrow's USDA report to peg Sept 1st US corn inventories in the range of 820-1050 million bushels, with an average of 962 million. Weekly export sales were in line with expectations at 787,900 MT for 2011/12 and 25,000 MT for 2012/13. China took 182,100 MT of that total. Funds were said to have bought back around 7,000 of the 17,000 contracts that they sold yesterday.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.54 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.40, up 13 1/4 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.95 1/2, up 34 1/4 cents. Minneapolis wheat again was the leader on expectations that the USDA will lower it's spring wheat production estimate tomorrow. Only minor changes are expected for winter wheat output but spring wheat production is seen falling from 522 million in August to 498 million bushels this time round. All wheat stocks are estimated at 2.046 billion bushels. Weekly export sales were below trade estimates at 428,900 MT with the trade no doubt conscious once again that Egypt bought Russian/Kazakh wheat today.