Nogger's Blog

20/09/11 -- EU grains finished slightly higher in a modest correction from recent losses. Nov London wheat was up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP159.50/tonne and Nov Paris wheat ending EUR.50/tonne higher at EUR196.00/tonne.

The market felt like it wanted to attempt to consolidate today, with London wheat having fallen GBP15.75/tonne (and Paris wheat curiously EUR15.75/tonne) since the turn of the month based on last night's closes.

As you can see gains of 50 pence or half a euro are hardly major reversals of the recent trend.

The market remains extremely cautious over the European debt issue, and also whether optimism that the US will extend QE at this week's Fed meeting will prove unfounded. Chicago grains opened around 10 cents higher in mid-afternoon trade, but had started to slip by the time European markets closed.

Fresh fundamental news was thin on the ground, although the Kazakhstan Ministry said that the grain harvest there stands at 18.3 MMT off only 72% of the planned area with yields up a whopping 85% on last year.

That potentially puts them on target for a final output of over 25 MMT, far higher than any estimate that's in the marketplace.

That's a similar story to the one slowly (and very quietly) emerging out of Russia where the Ministry yesterday raised their grain export forecast from "no higher than 20 MMT" to 20-22 MMT.