Nogger's Blog

26/09/11 -- EU grains finished mostly a tad higher with Nov London wheat up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP157.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat climbing EUR0.75/tonne to EUR192.75/tonne.

This was a very modest recovery attempt after a couple of weeks of significant losses. US grains quickly turned stronger than expected in afternoon trade, providing the catalyst for EU futures to also move higher.

There's a degree of hope around that some sort of concerted effort is on the cards to revive the fortunes of Greece and European banks this week. That may put a halt to the recent risk aversion plunge that's seen London wheat fall GBP17.75/tonne since the turn of the month.

US weather conditions remain too dry in the southern Plains to speed up winter wheat plantings. Meanwhile the spring wheat harvest is seen falling when that finally wraps up shortly.

Media chatter also suggests that dryness in the Ukraine, Argentina and Australia and is against wheat planting in the case of the former and wheat development in the case of the latter two.

Russia has harvested 84.7 MMT of grains so far off 83% of the planted area, already up 39% on last year's final total and suggesting that official estimates of a final crop of 90 MMT may be a bit on the low side.