Nogger's Blog

27/09/11 -- EU grains added to yesterday's modest gains with Nov London wheat closing up GBP2.00/tonne at GBP159.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat rising EUR2.25/tonne to EUR194.50/tonne.

Global stocks rose on optimism that eurozone leaders, the IMF and anybody else that fancies joining in will extract the digit and finally do something proactive to sort out the debt crisis.

London's FTSE100 was up 4% at the close of play, with the Paris and German stock markets up by more than 5%. WTI crude oil was almost four dollars firmer by the time that Liffe/Euronext closed, adding to the friendly tone.

When you look at it like that increases in wheat of only around two pounds/euros were actually pretty disappointing.

Defra made a few tweaks to 2010/11 wheat ending stocks by virtue of higher estimates for carryout from 2008/09 and 2009/10, increasing wheat availability by 117,000 MT to 17.9 MMT. Slightly lower usage from the feed sector also reduces domestic consumption in 2010/11.

Harvesting in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan is progressing well, with all three in line for a very substantial rebound in production from last season.

The world wheat area for the 2012 harvest could rise almost 4 million hectares, according to the IGC. The European wheat area is seen broadly unchanged, although sowings may increase in Germany as rains hampered rapeseed plantings during August and early September, they added.

Meanwhile Informa Economics forecast US all wheat plantings at 56.6 million acres, up 2.2 million from the current season.