Nogger's Blog

07/10/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.58 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.70, down 5 3/4 cents; Oct 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD300.10, up USD0.40; Oct 11 Soybean Oil closed at 49.07, up 15 points. On the week as a whole Nov beans fell 20 3/4 cents, with Oct meal down USD4.60 and Oct oil 88 points lower. Funds were said to have sold around 3,000 soybean contracts on the day, spurred on by harvest pressure and credit downgrades for Italy and Spain. The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows index funds decreasing their net soybean longs by 13,000 contracts from the previous week, with large funds dumping almost 17,000 lots in the week through to Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest should see the soybean harvest reach the halfway point by the end of the weekend traders expect.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.00, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.12 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents. On the week overall Dec corn managed to close 7 1/2 cents higher with Mar up 7 cents. Funds were said to have sold 5,000 contracts on the day with the COT Report showing large funds shedding over 44,000 lots of their length on the week through to Tuesday and index traders exiting a further 10,000 contracts. Even so the latter are still long to the tune of more than 332,000 lots (in excess of 42 MMT) with the former also sitting on 115,000 (14.6 MMT). Coming up on Wednesday we have the October WASDE report from the USDA where the trade expects corn production to come in at 12.479 billion bushels, with an average yield estimate of 148.73 bu/acre.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.07 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.84 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.19 1/2, up 24 1/2 cents. On the week as a whole Dec Chicago wheat was 1 3/4 cents lower with Kansas down 19 1/2 cents and Minneapolis climbing 27 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have sold 3,000 CBOT contracts on the day. The COT report shows a net fund short of more than 42,000 contracts, around 7,500 less than the previous week. Ukraine cancelling their export duty on wheat is bearish, as too might be heavy weekend rains if they materialise. "Northern Oklahoma may get 8 inches of rainfall based on the current GFS model forecast. Normal rainfall September-November is 7.3 inches, thus, if the forecast verifies, drought would be completely cured," say Martell Crop Projections.