Nogger's Blog

12/10/11 -- What the overnight grains did is out of the window now that we have the USDA numbers to go on, but for the record corn was 7-9 cents firmer, wheat 2-6 cents lower and beans 2-4 cents weaker.

The USDA numbers were mixed with wheat bearish, corn neutral to bearish and soybeans bullish.

US corn yields were left unchanged and production dropped a little, contrary to expectations for small increases. US ending stocks were however raised for both 2010/11 and 2011/12. World carryout for 2011/12 was also increased largely by virtue of an unexpected 4 MMT hike in production in China.

US and world wheat ending stocks were also raised, and in the case of the latter by much more than anticipated to their highest since 2001/02.

For soybeans US yields were cut rather than left unchanged and ending stocks for 2011/12 were much lower than expected, although world ending stocks increased slightly which was in line with trade ideas.

The wheat numbers are the ones that slap you in the face. Early calls are wheat down 10-15 cents, corn mixed and beans 5-10 cents higher.