Nogger's Blog

29/11/11 -- The overnight grains are mixed heading into the close of Globex trading having traded on both sides in a choppy session. Beans are 3-4 cents higher, wheat is 2-3 cents higher and corn a cent or so either side. Crude is slightly firmer and the US dollar a tad weaker.

Grains are attempting to rebound from the lows of the year set last week, although there's still plenty of bearish outside news about.

European leaders are meeting in Brussels and may not be able to come up with last month's promised EUR1 trillion bailout fund. Greece are said to be close to needed another handout and Italy has again had to pay in excess of 7% at a bond auction today. American Airlines' parent company has just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Argentina is expected to fee up a ruck of old crop wheat for export this week now that new crop harvesting is well underway. They've been even cheaper sellers than Black Sea wheat of late.

Russia's harvest is almost over and looks likely to have come in a bit higher than current USDA estimates.

Ukraine's exports are picking up, they've shipped more than 2 MMT of grain out this month bringing the total marketing year-to-date exports to 6.8 MMT, more than 50% up on a year ago.

Wheat accounts for 2.14 MMT of that total and corn 2.76 MMT. There's a further 1.2 MMT of grain sitting portside waiting to be shipped, according to the Ministry.

Australia's crops have been hit by late rains, reducing quality there once again. It looks like there will be no shortage of feed wheat Down Under in 2011/12, to add to the already weighty carry-in stocks left over from last season.

Rapeseed yields are said to be pretty decent this year, and depressed by falling wheat prices Australian farmers are said to be turning to OSR sales to generate their cashflow requirements. Sound familiar?

South America hasn't thrown up any serious weather worries yet. Martell Crop Projections say: "There are no major problems in Brazil corn and soybeans, just yet. We are keeping an eye on Mato Grosso, where heat is becoming detrimental, and South Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul where drought is a growing concern. Very good conditions continue in Parana, the top Brazil corn state and second leading soybean producer. Early planting of corn this spring means that crop development is more advanced than usual."

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 3-5 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents, corn steady to mixed.