Nogger's Blog

28/11/11 -- EU grains ended mixed but mostly higher as Jan 12 finished GBP1.20/tonne up at GBP143.45/tonne and with Jan 12 Paris wheat ending EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR180.25/tonne.

It looks like we could be in for another choppy week, with developments in Europe set to dominate again.

A report in an Italian newspaper that the troubled eurozone nation was to get an EUR600 billion loan from the IMF at a favourable rate of 4-5% firmed stocks and commodities in general, even though the IMF denied such a deal was being discussed.

On the fundamental front, trade talk that Ukraine's winter crops are in poor condition was backed up by the Ministry rating 32% of grains there as weak/thinned, and adding that a quarter of what was sown this autumn hasn't even emerged yet.

There's also some concern that persistent rains in Australia will lead to a downgrade in wheat quality for the second year in a row. Geraldton in Western Australia state received 3-5 inches of rainfall in the 30 days ending November 14 compared to 1 inch normally, report Martell Crop Projections.

Sticking with the southern hemisphere, Argentina's wheat harvest was 20% complete as of last Friday with a crop of 12 MMT expected, down by almost a quarter on last year with heavy rains early in the month coming too late to boost yields in many parts of the country.