Nogger's Blog

07/12/11 -- Soybeans: Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.31, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.41, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD283.70, up USD1.50; Dec 11 Soybean Oil closed at 50.24, up 26 points. There was a lack of convincing direction in the market today. A drier forecast for South America is friendly for beans, but a resurgence of pessimism over European debt isn't. The USDA is expected to raise US ending stocks on Friday, but only slightly. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA range from 550 to 650 MT.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD5.82 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD5.92 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts on the day, further decreasing their long. Ethanol prices are falling as US stocks rise due to strong production ahead of the removal of the blenders' tax credit at the turn of the year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales range from 350 to 450 thousand MT. The market remains nervous heading into the European leaders summit. The USDA is expected to trim US ending stocks for 2011/12 on Friday to around 831 million bushels.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD5.83, down 15 3/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.52 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.46 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents. Friday's USDA report isn't expected to be too significant for wheat. World ending stocks are seen marginally higher than last month, although this could be one area where the USDA spring a surprise given the potential for improved production in Australia and decreased exports from the US. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 300 to 500 thousand MT. Shipments will be of interest as they have lagged recently.