Nogger's Blog

31/01/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.99, up 13 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.01 1/2, up 7 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD319.30, up USD6.60; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.87, up 62 points. Funds bought an estimated 8,000 soybean contracts on the day, spurred on by yet more renewed hopes that Greece would finally sort a deal out with its creditors. Rising crude and other outside markets added support, although decent rains in Argentina were a negative, capping gains.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.39, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.69 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have bought 12,000 contracts on the day enthused by a renewed appetite for risk. The market believes that Argentine rains have come too late for corn, with local analyst Agroconsult now estimating the corn crop there at 18.8 MMT. Crude oil was up sharply, although Brazil's Sao Paulo state announced that it was temporarily putting at 25% duty on imported ethanol. Brazil currently takes over 33% of US ethanol exports.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.66, up 21 1/4 cents; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.15 1/2, up 18 cents; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.27 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents. Funds covered in an estimated 4,000 of their Chicago shorts in part of a broad-based commodity rally. Widespread talk that Russia will shortly introduce an export ban/duty has got the bears nervous, as too has much below normal temperatures this week across much of the FSU and Europe. Chicago wheat looks set to remain the leader of the pack here given the size of the short that still remains, and its discount to Kansas and Minneapolis.