Nogger's Blog

24/02/12 -- Soybeans: Mar 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.79, up 2 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.70 3/4, up 3 cents; Mar 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD333.60, up USD0.70; Mar 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.29, up 9 points. On the week as a whole beans were up 11 1/2 cents, with meal up USD1.10 and oil rising 89 points. Funds were said to have bought around 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. They added 15,000 to their net long position in the week through to Tuesday, according to today's Commitment of Traders report and are reckoned to have subsequently added around a further 12,000 since, including today's activity. The conclusion from the USDA's Outlook Forum looks bullish going into next season with 2012/13 US ending stocks seen tightening to just 205 million bushels. Heavy weekly export sales today were also supportive as was surging crude oil prices.

Corn: Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.40 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.58, down 3/4 cent. On the week old crop Mar corn was down a cent, with new crop Dec down 10 1/4 cents. Can you spot the trend? Whilst old crop supplies remain tight thye outlook for 2012/13 is looking increasingly bearish. The USDA forecast the now oft quoted "largest corn acreage since WWII" adding in record production and a doubling in carryout for next season. The Commitment of Traders report shows fund money getting out of corn and wheat and into soybeans in the week ending Tuesday. Today's weekly export sales report came in at 840,800 MT for corn, at the low end of expectations and with no sign of China as a featured buyer.

Wheat: Mar 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.41, down 3/4 cent; Mar 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.81, up 1 cent; Mar 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.86 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents. On the week as a whole Chicago wheat was down 3 cents, Kansas down 8 1/2 cents and Minneapolis stumbling 35 3/4 cents. Once again, can you spot the trend? Minneapolis wheat continues to erode away at the massive premium it has built up over Kansas & Chicago wheat, ending at its lowest levels in nearly 14 months. The market is looking for a sharp rebound in spring wheat output this year as many acres got flooded out and were never planted in 2011. The opposite is true this time round with dryness the concern. Rain and snow for northern areas across the weekend and into early next week should alleviate some of those worries, whilst still allowing planting to begin in a timely fashion. Funds are showing up as adding to their CBOT short position in the week through to Tuesday.