Nogger's Blog

30/03/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.03, up 47 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.58, up 53 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD388.70, up USD13.70; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.10, up 151 points. Soybeans poked their head above USD14/bu for the first time in more than six months following today's bullish USDA numbers. US farmers will plant 73.9 million acres of soybeans this year, they said. That's over a million lower than last year and well below the 75.3-75.5 million that the trade was expecting. Soybean stocks were also below the average trade estimate at 1.37 billion bushels. Funds, already heavily long soybeans, piled in for an estimated 15,000 bean contracts on the day and were said to have bought 40,000 lots across the entire grains sector. At the end of a topsy turvy week, beans gained 37 1/4 cents, meal USD15.70 and oil 22 points overall.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.44, up 40 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.40 1/4, up 16 cents. Despite today's rally May 12 corn was actually 2 1/2 cents lower on the week, with Dec 12 down 17 1/4 cents. The USDA numbers were bearish for new crop corn with an acreage of 95.9 million, higher than the highest trade estimate, the largest since 1937 and up 4 million on 2011. March 1 corn stocks were 6.01 billion bushels, 149 million lower than the average trade guess - giving us an even tighter old crop situation than we had before. It was the stocks number that the trade decided to focus on, with funds wading in for an estimated 40,000 contracts on the day, having ditched an estimated 50-60,000 lots in the first four days of the week.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.60 3/4, up 48 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.97 1/2, up 43 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.37 1/2, up 48 3/4 cents. Wheat rallied on the back of a USDA acreage estimate of 55.9 million, more than 2 million lower than they'd indicated at last month's Outlook Forum and towards the low end of trade estimates. The spring wheat acreage estimate came in at 11.976 million, which was well below the average trade guess of 13.313 million. Mar 1 wheat stocks also came in a bit below trade expectations at 1.2 billion bushels. Funds were said to have bought 10,000 Chicago contracts on the day, although that would still leave them with a significant short on wheat. On the week overall Chicago wheat put in a modest gain of 6 1/2 cents, with Kansas wheat gaining 3 cents and Minneapolis adding 20 1/4 cents.