Nogger's Blog

23/03/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.65 3/4, up 16 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.22 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD373.00, up USD2.90; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.88, up 92 points. The soya complex headed into the weekend consolidating losses from earlier in the week. May 12 beans still finished 8 1/4 cents lower on the week, with meal down USD1.40 and oil losing 62 points. Funds were said to have bought 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. The Argentine Ag Ministry fine tuned their soybean crop estimate to 44.0 MMT compared to a previous estimate of 43.5-45.0 MMT and the USDA's 46.5 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report shows large funds adding 23,000 contracts to their net soybean length in the week through to Tuesday. Farm Futures magazine estimate 2012 US soybean acres at 76 million, one million more than the USDA indicated last month.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.46 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.57 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents. May 12 lost 26 1/2 cents on the week, with new crop Dec 12 falling 17 cents. Farm Futures magazine said that US farmers will plant 95.1 million acres of corn this spring, 1.1 million more than the USDA projected at it's February Outlook forum. Despite that funds were said to have been net buyers of 3,000 contracts on the day. The Commitment of Traders report has them adding almost 19,000 lots to their net long position (which is now close to 200,000 contracts) in the week through to Tuesday. The Argentine truckers strike is over, which should allow corn and soybean exports there to resume as normal. China's corn stocks are being openly questioned. One leading Chinese official was quoted as saying that "the balance of supply and demand of corn in China appeared to be reaching a tipping point."

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.54 1/4, up 8 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.94 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.17 1/4 up 10 1/4 cents. May 12 Chicago wheat fell 17 3/4 cents on the week. Funds were given credit for being net buyers of 3,000 contracts on the day. Chicago wheat has a shortage of sellers due to the existing large fund short. Extra corn and soybean acres have to come from somewhere, and whilst there will be some that come from land that was too wet to get anything planted last season and was claimed on against "prevent plant" insurance, it looks like some may come from wheat. Farm Futures magazine see US all wheat acres at 56.7 million for the 2012 harvest. That's 1.3 million less than the USDA indicated last month, although still an increase of 4.2% on last year. The possibility of lower European production in 2012 is also seen as supportive for US wheat. The Commitment of Traders report has the fund community reducing their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options by 2,000 contracts to just over 41,000 in total.