Early Call On Chicago

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 12:42 | Categorized as

20/03/12 -- The overnight market is red across the board with beans down 10-13 cents and corn & wheat around 6-9 cents lower. WTI crude is a dollar or so weaker, with Brent falling around USD1.75/barrel. Outside markets are also mostly negative with gold and equities also falling. The dollar is a bit firmer, adding a bit more downside pressure.

Profit-taking looks like being the order of the day again, with no sign of a turnaround Tuesday in sight so far.

Russia's announcement that they won't be introducing any sort of export restrictions this season is being credited for having knocked some of the stuffing out of the market. Rusagrotrans say grain exports in Feb fell to 1.1 MMT due to ice restricting movements. That brings Jul-Feb exports to 20.6 MMT, they see the full 2011/12 MY at 25.5-26 MMT, comfortably below the government's suggested ceiling.

The US weather finally seems to be playing ball too, with rain where it's wanted and warmth and dryness where that is wanted too. There were good rains in central OK, KS, and TX yesterday, and the dry areas of Western KS and Eastern CO look set to receive rains in next few days also.

Winter wheat is 3-4 weeks ahead of normal development, which is fine as long as we don't get an April freeze. The latter certainly isn't out of the question though.

As things stand Midwest corn planting looks like getting off to a flyer.

Linn Group are estimating US all wheat plantings at 57 million acres, with corn at 94.8 million and soybeans at 76.7 million. March 1st stocks for wheat are seen at 1.216 billion bushels, for corn 6.112 billion and for beans 1.387 billion.

Last month the USDA's Outlook Forum pegged corn acres at 94 million, soybeans at 75 million and wheat at 58 million.

Based on where the overnights are now we see May 12 beans down 20 1/4 cents, May 12 corn down 18 1/2 cents and May 12 CBOT wheat down 28 1/2 cents from Friday night's closing levels.

For corn yesterday's export inspections were pretty poor and cumulative shipments now lag year ago levels by more than 23 million bushels. Soybean and wheat inspections were also on the low side.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12 cents, wheat & corn down 7-9 cents.