Nogger's Blog

21/03/12 -- EU grains finished narrowly mixed with Mar 12 London wheat unchanged and May 12 down GBP0.25/tonne to GBP169.75/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat was unchanged, with new crop Nov 12 up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR200.00/tonne.

Reports that up to 8% of French winter crops had succumbed to the February freeze were supportive. News that Morocco and Algeria had both bought South American wheat in preference to more expensive EU and US origins was not.

News that the Spanish port of Cartagena is about to unload 40,000 MT of US wheat highlights how the recent decline in world freight markets opens up what would have been traditionally considered to be a "safe" European home to other origins.

Russia's grain exports meanwhile have slowed right up, with only 400,000 MT being shipped out in the first ten days of the month as they find themselves priced out of the market.

US weather is currently favourable for both winter wheat development and timely corn (and spring wheat) plantings. The US all wheat area is expected to be around 5-9% higher for the 2012 harvest and crop conditions are markedly better than they were last year too.

The Ukraine Ag Minister says that corn plantings there may increase by between 23-29% to 4.3-4.5 million hectares for the 2012 harvest. Whilst much of that increase comes at the expense of failed winter wheat, carryover stocks of the latter at the end of the current season are expected to be the largest in almost 20 years at 7-8 MMT.