Nogger's Blog

19/03/12 -- EU grains finished mostly lower. Mar 12 London wheat was down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP171.50/tonne, other old crop months were down GBP1.25/tonne with new crop months falling GBP0.40-0.90/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat was down EUR3.25/tonne to EUR210.50/tonne.

Based on tonight's close there's now only five euros between May 12 London and Paris wheat.

There wasn't really a great deal of fresh news around today. Heavy rain overnight for southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle should aid winter wheat there.

"Frost is predicted tonight in those same areas. Wheat jointing is suspected to be in the early stages, so frost may merely burn leaves, not causing any permanent damage. It is a reminder that wheat development is 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule," say Martell Crop Projections.

There's lots of talk of losses to winter grains in France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine due to the February deep freeze, but quantifying it isn't easy with opinions varying quite widely at this early stage.

Iraq bought 300,000 MT of Canadian wheat last week, following on from 400,000 MT from the same origin in February, They will tender again in April they say.

Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of any origin wheat and a similar quantity of optional origin barley for May/July shipment

Algeria is also in the market 125,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat and 50,000 MT of barley for May shipment. UAE are also seeking smaller quantities of wheat, barley and corn for April/May shipment.

Safras e Mercado estimate the 2011/12 Brazilian corn crop at 63.26 MMT, down from their previous estimate but still a record and higher than the USDA said earlier this month.

Russia’s first deputy prime minister says that there will be no need for grain export restrictions in the current crop year.

France and Spain may see some rain this week but the UK, especially the east, is set to remain dry. Indeed, there's not a lot of rain in the forecast for us now until April. Deja Vu anybody?